THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-23-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude sits @ $92, down 1%. Brent sits at $101, down 1%. • Iran continues to restrict traffic through SoH with 20% of global oil being affected. • Analysts now expect WTI to trade between $111 - $137 by the end of 2026, with extreme scenarios topping $200 if conflict escalates. • NYMEX natgas prices open the day down $0.07 thru Dec '26. • Storage came in like a beast, and the market is reacting to it. • Today's weather patterns could support higher cash/power prices across the Mid-Con region. • LNG exports staying above 20Bcf/D with more exports scheduled. • RE should increase as clearer skies blanket the western half. • Power prices are settling down from yesterday's wide swings. • First real heatwave will flip this market.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.71, High = $2.74, Low = $2.63, Current = $2.64
+$0.02 from 1 week ago
-$0.23 from 1 year ago
+$1.02 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.93
20-day avg = $2.77
9-day avg = $2.66
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.85 (R2) = $3.00
PIVOT = $2.60
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.55 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.49
Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.09
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.05
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.30
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.33
Calendar '27 = $3.64 Calendar '28 = $3.77
Calendar '29 = $3.71 Calendar '30 = $3.72
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.1Bcf, +1.6% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.6Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.3Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.3Bcf, +3.3% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 106.3Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Severe storms from southern Plains to upper MW. Several wildfires burning in GA & FL.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = Warmer & clearer w/HDDs fading. 60s-40s.
Mid-Atlantic = Warmer, supporting modest CDDs. 80s-60s.
SE/Gulf = Modest CDDs today & tomorrow with dry conditions. 80s-50s.
Texas/S. Plains = Warm enough for elevated power volatility. 80s-60s.
West/SW = Clear skies and pleasant temps. 70s-50s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Moderate temps and mainly clear. 60s-40s.
Great Lakes = Heavy rain, flash floods in some areas, limiting CDDs, increasing spot price volatility. This is the region to watch today. 80s-60s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-17-26:
Total = 543, -2 w/w.
Oil @ 410 rigs, -1 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -2 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, +1 w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 585.
STORAGE – 4-23-26 Estimate = +94Bcf. Actual = +103Bcf
Last year = +88Bcf. 5-yr avg = +60Bcf.
Storage levels are +142Bcf compared to this time last year.
Storage levels are +137Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,926Bcf.
At 2,063Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 15% Hydro = 6%
Wind = 11% Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745.
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE on 4-23-26:
CAISO = -$82 - $60 ERCOT = -$50 - $29 MISO = -$20 - $85
PJM = -$23 - $27 NYISO = $29 - $31 ISONE = $28 - $30
CRUDE = 2026 = $86.08, 2027 = $72.81, 2028 = $68.91, 2029 = $66.57
THE BOTTOM LINE
If NYMEX prompt month can break $2.60 with a strong storage injection, we could see stronger downward support. Basis prices are tightening but that tightness could be short lived if cooler temps flood the areas that are currently seeing elevated CDDs by next week.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie