THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-28-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude sits $99, up 3.5%. Brent sits at $104, up 2.75%.
- "Experts" now believe oil prices will take off if the SoH remains closed going into May.
- NYMEX gas prices are flat so far this morning.
- Demand is expected to move from Low to Moderate this week.
- The colder temps are now playing out stronger, increasing HDDs.
- Elevated HDDs (north) and elevated CDDs (south) are in effect.
- Danelfin has the USG Fund (US natgas fund) as a BUY rating.
- If the fund is expected to go up, prices are expected to go up.
- Danelfin ranks stocks/funds on 3-month outlook windows.
- Major price spikes for PJM this AM on transmission constraint.
- Solar provided nearly 80% of power gen yesterday in California.
- The Duck Curve is growing in CA because of the solar flooding, and you don't want a Duck Curve – more in tonight's Nightcap.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.53, High = $2.55, Low = $2.48, Current = $2.52
- -$0.16 from 1 week ago
- -$0.84 from 1 year ago
- +$0.50 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.90
- 20-day avg = $2.71
- 9-day avg = $2.66
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.75 (R2) = $3.00
PIVOT = $2.47
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.40 (S2) = $2.30
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.49
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.08
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.05
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.31
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.33
- Calendar '27 = $3.64
- Calendar '28 = $3.78
- Calendar '29 = $3.72
- Calendar '30 = $3.73
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103.
Market Data
- LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.5Bcf, -2.1% w/w.
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 5.5Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.7Bcf, +3.8% y/y.
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 111.8Bcf.
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 104.5Bcf.
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
We could view the below charts as either an extended Shoulder Season or elevated HDDs.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather Outlook
- NE/New England = Slight HDDs, nothing too drastic. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Little to no HDDs or CDDs in this region. 70s-50s.
- SE/Gulf = Storms should cap CDDs. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = High increasing the CDDs before cool front. 90s-70s.
- West/SW = Mild demand in CA, higher CDDs in NV/AZ. 70s-40s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Above avg temps bring 1st CDDs of the season. 60s-20s.
- Great Lakes = CDDs fade as HDDs resurface. 60s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-24-26
- Total = 544, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 407 rigs, -3 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, +4 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 587.
STORAGE
4-30-26 Estimate = +73Bcf to +81Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +107Bcf.
- 5-yr avg = +60Bcf.
- Storage levels are +142Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +137Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,926Bcf.
- At 2,063Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 42%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 14%
- Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1450. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 4-28-26
- CAISO = -$72 - $63
- ERCOT = $32 - $140
- MISO = -$58 - $120
- PJM = $88 - $595
- NYISO = $24 - $27
- ISONE = $26 - $28
CRUDE
- 2026 = $86.88
- 2027 = $73.91
- 2028 = $69.47
- 2029 = $66.91
THE BOTTOM LINE
NYMEX prices remain cheap. Basis is tightening. Don't get caught short here. You could wait for the summer heat confirmation to show up, gamble out the cheap months, buy at the bottom of the market, or you could watch everything blow up. If you want to know what we're doing, ask us.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie