Baylor university says no way on current US renewable energy goals
THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/13/24
#BaylorUniversitySaysNoWay
***#NYMEXFreeFalling #PG&EBasisMixed #SoCalGasBasisMixed #WeatherBulls #CarbonOffsets ***
***NYMEX ****– Continues to fall. Get on it and here’s why – getting to the bottom of a bear is usually a slow process. A bull run back up, on the other hand, takes no time at all. *
***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.75, High = $1.78, Low = $1.66, Current = $1.68. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.50 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.95 from 1 year ago. *
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.43, 2025 = $3.38, 2026 = $3.76. *
*We are below the 50-day ($2.51), the 20-day ($2.25), and the 9-day ($1.94) average. *
RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.88/$1.91. *
THE PIVOT* @ $1.85.*
SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.81/$1.78. *
*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *
BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are moving back and forth so far today. There is room to fall for both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices, in my opinion.*
*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *
EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports are averaging 13.3Bcf/D so far this week.*
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** ****Today’s Est. Supply = 110.3Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 110.67Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 104.7Bcf. *
Demand - Today’s Est. Demand = 122.6Bcf. Demand 7-Day Avg. = 115.71Bcf/D.
***RIG COUNT –As of 2-9-24 – Overall rig ****count = 623, down from 761 active rigs from 1 year ago. The oil rig count is unchanged from last week’s count for a total of 499. Natural gas rigs increased by 4 rigs for a total of 121. *
WEATHER* – The recent storm here in the West appears to be weakening while a storm heading for the Gulf region appears to be strengthening. Colder temperatures from the Pac NW and moving east. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*
STORAGE* – Next storage report comes out 2-15-24. We are now 187Bcf higher than we were last year and 248Bcf above the 5-year average 2,584Bcf. At 3,476Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. EIA projects to end the Withdrawal season at 1.942Tcf. This is the highest storage level projected since 2020. The 5-year average is 1.653Tcf. However, EIA slashed their end of season projection 2 weeks ago from 2.155Tcf to 1.905Tcf.*
***CRUDE – ****Running up again this week. Staying near $77 so far today. Estimates - 2024 = $75.57, 2025 = $71.18, 2026 = $67.72. *****
CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO is just below $47MWH. *
***UNRELIABLE
RENEWABLE ENERGY – ***Here’s a link to an interesting study from Baylor University, listing the barriers as to why the current goals are unattainable by 2050. Worth a read. And the reason it’s worth a read is not to bash unreliable green energy sou8rces. The reason to read it is because natural gas will be called upon more than before as an energy source for power plants. This tells me that there will be more bulls than bears. Here’s the link, https://news.web.baylor.edu/news/story/2024/renewable-energy-goals-are-unattainable-2050;
***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.
***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****Buy NYMEX now. Wait for a downward correction on California Basis before buying more. *
**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $3.45 $3.61 $3.42
3 MONTHS $3.43 $3.83 $3.38
6 MONTHS $3.72 $4.53 $4.08
12 MONTHS $4.77 $5.77 $5.29
24 MONTHS $5.00 $5.85 $5.31
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.80 $4.69 $4.26