Bearish Are Everywhere
THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-8-24
***#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeatherShifting #CarbonOffsetsSoldHere ***
***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.77, High = $1.83, Low = $1.75, Current = $1.89. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.06 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.35 from 1 year ago. *
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.48, 2025 = $3.43, 2026 = $3.80.*
*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *
We are above the 50-day ($1.82), the 20-day ($1.72) and above the 9-day ($1.77) average. First time we have been above all three price ranges in some time.
RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $1.88/$1.92. *
THE PIVOT* @ $1.78. *
SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.75/$1.72. *
BASIS* – PG&E Basis prices are up slightly today while SoCal Basis is down. *
*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *
***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ****– LNG exports averaging 12.9Bcf.D. Exports to Mexico = 6.3Bcf/D. Imports from Canada = 4.5Bcf. *
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 106.5Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 107.17Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 102.3Bcf. *
*Today’s Est. Demand = 98.1Bcf. Lowest demand of the past 7 days. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 104.78Bcf. 7-day Demand forecast moves to “low”. *
***RIG COUNT ****– The oil rig count is up 2 from last week for a total of 508 active rigs. Natural gas rigs fell by 2 for a total of 110 active rigs. Check this out – gas rigs are 93.2% below the all-time of 1,606 active gas rigs recorded in 2008. *
STORAGE* – We are 422Bcf above this time last year and 633Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,626Bcf. At 2,259Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *
WEATHER* – NatGasWeather.com has this to say for the next 6 days, “It’s a messy weather pattern this week as numerous weather systems track across the US w/heavy showers and thunderstorms, but overall temperatures will be mild to nice over the northern US w/highs of upper 40s-60s, while nice to warm over the southern US w/highs of 60s-80s, very locally 90s. Overall, light to very light demand the next 7-days.”*
*5 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *
CRUDE –* Current price = $86.10. That’s’ up $2 from yesterday’s opening price. Forward estimates: 2024 = $83.73, 2025 = $76.30, 2026 = $71.09. *****
CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO just over $37 per MWH. *
CARBON OFFSETS –* We’re going to see a lot of carbon offsets coming out of Africa as their government finally gets serious about implementing “clean cooking” mandates/projects. If you’re looking to buy carbon offsets, many of our Supply Partners offer carbon offset menus (type of carbon offset, price per unit, etc.) for review and purchase.*
RENEWABLE ENERGY* – EIA says today’s eclipse will only briefly limit solar power generation. Not to worry – the path from Texas to Maine generates 84.4GW with only 6GW expected to be lost. *
***THE BOTTOM LINE ****– Weather, production/supply, lack of demand, and growing storage are bearish factors. Let’s cash in on the cheap months. We can do that without having to buy full strips. Just let us know. *
**Indicative Fixed Prices out of May ’24 **
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.66 $2.60 $2.35
3 MONTHS $3.02 $3.44 $3.07
6 MONTHS $3.47 $4.19 $3.95
12 MONTHS $4.68 $5.34 $4.88
24 MONTHS $5.09 $5.79 $5.25
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.42 $4.15 $3.63
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$6.44 $7.18 $6.71