Better than expected storage report keeps the bulls at bay.

🔋 One Minute Energy Update – 7/25/24 🌍

🗞️ Today’s Highlights:

1️⃣ Freeport LNG Ramps Up 🚢: Post-Beryl recovery means up to 2Bcf/D moving to LNG exports, impacting domestic supply.

2️⃣ Record NatGas Power Generation ⚡: July 9th saw 6.9MM MWh, the highest since hourly data tracking began (Jan 2019).

3️⃣ Wind Power Decline 🌬️: July 9th produced only 0.3MM MWh, a significant drop from June's 1.3MM MWh average.

4️⃣ Growing NatGas Demand 📈.

5️⃣ Oil Prices Drop ⛽: China's rate cut signals demand concerns.

6️⃣ Coal Dominates Globally 🏭: Still the main energy source for power generation.

#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearishBeforeBullish #CarbonOffsets

📊 Market Snapshot:

NYMEX: Open = $2.12, High = $2.15, Low = $2.07, Current = $2.12 (Up $0.05 from last week)

NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates: 2024 = $2.50, 2025 = $3.31, 2026 = $3.68

NYMEX Monthly Averages: 2024 YTD = $2.19, 2023 = $2.73, 2022 = $6.64, 2021 = $3.84

🛠️ Technicals:

Averages: Below 50-day ($2.55), 20-day ($2.31), and 9-day ($2.16)

Resistance: Starting @ $2.15/$2.19

Pivot: $2.13

Support: Starting @ $2.08/$2.06

📈 Basis Prices:

PG&E CG: 2023 avg = $9.83, 2024 avg = $3.24

SoCal CG: 2023 avg = $10.95, 2024 avg = $3.03

SoCal Border: 2023 avg = $8.14, 2024 avg = $2.45

🌐 LNG & NG Exports/Imports:

LNG Exports = 11.1Bcf

Mexico Exports = 6.9Bcf

Canadian Imports = 6.5Bcf

🔍 Supply & Demand:

2024 Production avg = 104Bcf/D, 2025 = 105Bcf/D

Today’s Est. Supply = 106.8Bcf, Demand = 104.1Bcf

🛢️ Rig Count:

Total = 586 (NatGas rigs up by 3 to 103, Oil rigs down by 1 to 477)

📦 Storage:

Latest injection = 22Bcf (18Bcf estimated)

Current = 3,231Bcf (249Bcf higher than last year, 456Bcf above 5-year avg)

🌡️ Weather & Forecasts:

Short-Term: Highs in 90s-100s in SW, Central, SE US

Long-Term: Bullish in 5-15 day forecast, bearish Aug-Dec

Hurricane Season: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes predicted

🛢️ Crude Oil:

Current = $76.20

Forward estimates: 2024 = $76.27, 2025 = $72.46, 2026 = $68.97

🔌 CA Retail Power:

Grid Status = Normal, Pricing = $55-$70/MWh

NatGas = 54.6% of power gen, Renewables = 12.4%

🌿 Carbon Offsets:

Mandates starting 2025 – plan ahead!

🔚 The Bottom Line:

NYMEX prices below Q3 & Q4 2024 projections

RFP ES expanding services across multiple regions – get your custom quotes at RFPES.com

#EnergyUpdate #NatGas #LNG #EnergyMarket #CarbonOffsets #RenewableEnergy #PowerGeneration #EnergyDemand