Bulls Could Have A Short Run Soon

The One Minute Energy Update for April 19, 2024 #BullsCouldHaveAShortRunSoon

Market Indicators:

• NYMEX Natural Gas Pricing Today:

  • Open: $1.74

  • High: $1.80

  • Low: $1.72

  • Current: $1.75

• Comparison:

  • Week Ago: +$0.05

  • Year Ago: -$0.50

NYMEX Estimates:

• Calendar Year:

  • 2024: $2.47

  • 2025: $3.49

  • 2026: $3.94

• Monthly Averages:

  • 2023: $2.73

  • 2022: $6.64

  • 2021: $3.84

Technical Analysis:

• Averages: Below 50-day, 20-day, and 9-day (all at $1.75)

• Resistance: Starts at $1.79 and $1.87

• Pivot Point: $1.76

• Support: Starts at $1.68 and $1.66

Basis Reports:

• PG&E and SoCal CG Basis: Slightly up today

• 2023 First of the Month Index:

  • PG&E CG: $9.83

  • SoCal CG: $10.95

  • SoCal Border: $8.14

Market Operations:

• LNG Exports: 10.9 Bcf/D

• Natural Gas Exports to Mexico: 6.0 Bcf/D

• Imports from Canada: 4.5 Bcf

• Supply and Demand:

  • Today's Estimated Supply: 104.0 Bcf

  • Supply 7 Day Average: 103.8 Bcf

  • Today's Estimated Production: 99.4 Bcf

  • Today's Estimated Demand: 93.7 Bcf

  • Demand 7 Day Average: 92.01 Bcf

Additional Metrics:

• Rig Count: Oil rigs up by 5 to 511, natural gas rigs down by 3 to 106

• Storage:

  • Forecast: Injection of 44 Bcf

  • Actual: Injection of 50 Bcf

• Current Storage: 2,333 Bcf, above 5-year average by 622 Bcf

Weather Forecast:

• Next 6 Days: Moderate to high demand due to chilly weather

• 5-10 Day Forecast: Bullish

• 10-15 Day Forecast: Bullish

• 3-Month Outlook: Bearish

• Summer Outlook (June - August): Bullish

Commodity Prices:

• Crude Oil: Down to $82.78

• Forward Estimates:

  • 2024: $80.59

  • 2025: $75.23

  • 2026: $70.76

Energy Markets:

• CAISO Retail Power: Just over $23 per MWh

• Renewable Energy:

  • CNET predicts wave energy as a future main renewable source

  • EIA forecasts 6% increase in hydro levels for 2024

Carbon Offsets:

• Market Movement: Increasing activity in Africa due to new "clean cooking" mandates

Fixed Price Offers:

• Indicative Prices Out of May 2024:

  • 1 Month: PG&E CG - $2.54, SoCal CG - $2.44, SoCal Border - $2.14

  • 3 Months: PG&E CG - $2.98, SoCal CG - $3.29, SoCal Border - $2.98

  • 6 Months: PG&E CG - $3.40, SoCal CG - $4.11, SoCal Border - $3.77

  • 24 Months: PG&E CG - $5.10, SoCal CG - $5.80, SoCal Border - $5.40

• Seasonal Strips:

  • Summer (April - Aug '24): $3.35 (PG&E CG), $4.06 (SoCal CG), $3.55 (SoCal Border)

  • Winter (Nov '24 - Feb '25): $6.40 (PG&E CG), $7.12 (SoCal CG), $6.79 (SoCal Border)

Bottom Line: Expect higher prices over the next week due to weather, but a downward shift by late next week. Fundamental outlook remains bearish.