CA Basis Weakening
Written on by Sean Dookie.
The One Minute Energy Update - May 13, 2024
📈 Market Movements:
- NYMEX Natural Gas is showing a positive trend with prices starting at $2.25 and peaking at $2.30 today. Compared to last week, prices have increased by $0.10 but are down $0.20 from last year.
- 2024 Estimates: Projected prices are $2.69, rising to $3.84 by 2026.
📉 Basis Points:
- PG&E CG Basis and SoCal Basis are down, reflecting lesser congestion charge differentials.
🌡️ Weather Impact:
- Cooler forecasts are weakening demand, with the northern US experiencing comfortable temperatures and the southern regions heating up.
🔥 Energy Demand & Supply:
- Estimated daily supply stands at 103.9Bcf.
- Demand is lighter, expected to remain stable around 95.2Bcf for the week.
- Production today is at 99.0Bcf, indicating potential bullish trends later this year due to a drop in production.
🛢️ Oil and Gas Rigs:
- Oil rigs have decreased by 3 units, totaling 496, while natural gas rigs increased by 1, totaling 103.
🔄 Storage Insights:
- Current storage levels are significantly above last year and the five-year average, suggesting robust supply.
⚡ Power and Carbon Markets:
- CAISO power prices are currently just over $16 per MWh.
- Carbon Offsets are available from $1 to $375 per unit, offering a variety of options for managing carbon footprints.
📊 Forward Looking Statements:
- Weather predictions and market dynamics suggest fluctuating conditions but generally bullish trends for the summer.
🔍 Key Indicators:
- Resistance: Begins at $2.31, with a pivot at $2.27 and support starting at $2.21.
- Long-Term Forecasts: Prices for the coming months and year show a gradual increase, with significant gains expected in longer-term contracts.
Stay updated with real-time insights and trends in the energy market to navigate through the dynamic energy landscape effectively. #EnergyMarket #NaturalGas #NYMEX #MarketTrends #EnergyUpdate