Calm before the bullish storm next week?
THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-29-24
#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisNegative4JuneDown #SoCalBasisNegative4June #WeatherTurningBullish #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.59, High = $2.66, Low = $2.48, Current = $2.48. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.20 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.35 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.98, 2025 = $3.53, 2026 = $3.90.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are above the 50-day ($2.01), the 20-day ($2.40) and below the 9-day ($2.63) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.64/$2.70.
THE PIVOT @ $2.55.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.50/$2.41.
BASIS – Both PG&E CG Basis SoCal Basis daily spot, day ahead, and forward month prices are down hard today. June ’24, for both PG&E CG and SoCal CG is posting a negative price. Daily and Day Ahead Spot prices are great right now. If you need to burn over nominations, now is the time to do it.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.51 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. 2024 averaging $3.29 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. 2024 averaging $2.65 through May ’24.
LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports Average = 13.0Bcf/D. Mexico Exports = 6.8Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.8Bcf.
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Today’s Est. Supply = 106.5Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 106.78Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 98.5Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 95.2Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 94.87Bcf. Low demand over the next few days before moving to strong demand by this time next week.
RIG COUNT – Last week’s rig count (5-24-24) has the following – the oil rig count is unchanged with a total of 497 active rigs. The natural gas rig count falls by 4 for a total of 103 active rigs. The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs. Overall rig count = 600. We are down 111 active rigs compared to this time last year.
STORAGE – We are currently 421Bcf above this time last year and 620Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,013Bcf. At 2,633Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. Storage is projected to be 3.90Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.70Tcf for March ’25.
WEATHER – Mixed forecasts for June are keeping prices from running up right now. NatGasWeather has this to say, “The far southern US will be very warm to hot w/highs of mid-80s-and 90s besides hotter 100s Southwest deserts. Most of the northern 2/3 of the US will be mild through the weekend w/highs of 60s-to lower 80s. Much of the northern US will warm into the 80s next week, while very warm to hot over the southern US w/upper 80s and 90s for stronger national demand.”
5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (July – Sep) forecast = bullish.
CRUDE – Up. Current price = $79.64. Forward estimates: 2024 = $78.51, 2025 = $74.33, 2026 = $70.48.
CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing moves up to just over $16 per MWH.
CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery.
THE BOTTOM LINE – Summer cooling demand should ramp up next week, but for how long? Storage is strong. Production may pull back. Let’s not forget about summer pipeline maintenance that usually restricts capacity and gives strength to bullish pricing. Not the time to play games. We’re below last year’s pricing and the previous few years.
Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.25 $2.05 $1.78
3 MONTHS $3.25 $3.70 $3.30
6 MONTHS $3.75 $4.25 $3.90
12 MONTHS $4.70 $5.20 $4.79
24 MONTHS $5.10 $5.75 $5.35
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.45 $4.01 $3.62
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.65 $6.20 $5.80