Current Weather Is A Mother But NYMEX Doesn't Care

🔔 One Minute Energy Update – 7/11/24 🔔

#NYMEXDown 📉 #PG&EBasisUp 📈 #SoCalBasisUp 🌞 #WeatherBullish ☀️ #CarbonOffsets 🌍

Market Overview:

• NYMEX Prices: Open = $2.32, High = $2.34, Low = $2.29, Current = $2.31
  • Down $0.12 from last week 📉
  • 2024 Estimate = $2.67, 2025 = $3.39, 2026 = $3.76

Averages:

• 2024 YTD = $2.19
• 2023 = $2.73
• 2022 = $6.64
• 2021 = $3.84

Support/Resistance:

• Below 50-day ($2.54), 20-day ($2.66), and 9-day ($2.44) averages
• Resistance: $2.37/$2.42
• Pivot: $2.33
• Support: $2.28/$2.24

Basis Prices:

• PG&E CG & SoCal CG Basis prices rising due to high cooling demand 🌡️
• Spot prices up $1.50 - $2.00 in two weeks

Indices:

• PG&E CG 2023 Avg: $9.83, 2024: $3.24
• SoCal CG 2023 Avg: $10.95, 2024: $3.03
• SoCal Border 2023 Avg: $8.14, 2024: $2.45

Exports/Imports:

• LNG Exports: 12.2Bcf/D
• Mexico Exports: 6.4Bcf/D
• Canadian Imports: 6.1Bcf/D

Supply & Demand:

• Today's Est. Supply: 107.4Bcf, 7-Day Avg: 108.37Bcf
• Today's Est. Production: 101.5Bcf
• Today's Est. Demand: 107.2Bcf, 7-Day Avg: 104.52Bcf
• Demand for next 7 days: High 🔥

Rig Count:

• Total: 585 rigs (+4)
• Oil: 479 rigs
• NatGas: 101 rigs (+4)
• Miscellaneous: 5 rigs

Storage:

• Injection estimate: 54Bcf
• Current storage: 3,134Bcf (275Bcf above last year, 496Bcf above 5-year avg)
• Projections: Oct '24 = 3.95Tcf, Mar '25 = 1.65Tcf

Weather Forecast:

• Hot high pressure dominating 🌡️
• Highs of 100-113°F in the West
• Cooler in Great Lakes & Ohio Valley
• Hurricane season update: 25 named storms predicted

Crude Oil:

• Current price: $82.47
• Forward estimates: 2024 = $80.18, 2025 = $75.27, 2026 = $71.13
• EIA forecast for 2024: $89 average

CA Retail Power:

• CAISO pricing jumped to $94 per MWH 🔥

Carbon Offsets:

• Mandates starting as early as 2025 🌍

Bottom Line:

• Cooler weather is holding back bulls 🐂
• Take advantage of cheap NYMEX now

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