Down Goes NYMEX! Down Goes NYMEX!
RFP ES will be closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day. May God Bless every one of our men and women who serve, served, and especially to those who made the ultimate sacrifice to protect our freedom. Now, more than ever, it seems we need to remember just how fragile our freedom is and to never take it for granted. Thank you to every single one of you who served and serve.
Now, please enjoy THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-24-24….
#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalBasisDown #WeatherGettingBullish #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.67, High = $2.70, Low = $2.55, Current = $2.58. NYMEX prices are flat from 1 week ago and up approximately $0.10 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $3.06, 2025 = $3.57, 2026 = $3.95.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are above the 50-day ($1.98), the 20-day ($2.35) and the 9-day ($2.60) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.84/$3.02.
THE PIVOT @ $2.74.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.55/$2.45.
BASIS – Both PG&E CG Basis SoCal Basis daily spot, day ahead, and forward month prices continue to fall.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.51 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. 2024 averaging $3.29 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. 2024 averaging $2.65 through May ’24.
LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports Average = 13.1Bcf/D. Mexico Exports = 6.6Bcf. Canadian Imports = 6.0Bcf.
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Today’s Est. Supply = 107.4Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 106.8Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 101.3Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 97.5Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 95.9Bcf. Moderate demand this week.
RIG COUNT – Last week’s rig count (5-17-24) has the following - oil rig count is up 1 rig for a total of 497 active rigs. The natural gas rig count is unchanged for a total of 103 active rigs. The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs. Overall rig count = 604. We are down 116 active rigs compared to this time last year.
STORAGE – We are currently 402Bcf above this time last year and 606Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,105Bcf. At 2,711Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. Storage is projected to be 3.88Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.75Tcf for March ’25. Some “experts” have these levels at 3.5Tcf and 1.2Tcf – ridiculously bullish estimates. And to get to those lower projections, production will have to drop considerably while demand takes off. If that happens, expect bullish movement from here until…whenever. Great example of just how volatile this commodity is on any given day.
WEATHER – Heavy storms are rolling through the Mid-Con & id-Atlantic today. Those storms will weaken by tomorrow, giving way to pleasant weather. The rest of our great republic should enjoy mild weather. Except for you Texas, and SW. You will feel the heat through the weekend. ERCOT will be tested.
6 – 10-day forecast = even money. 10-15-day forecast = even money. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (July – Sep) forecast = bullish.
CRUDE – Up. Current price = $76.86. Forward estimates: 2024 = $76.14, 2025 = $72.35, 2026 = $69.07. US crude production, so far in 2024, remains above the past 5 years.
CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing moves up to just over $12 per MWH. Rumor has it that a current retail power provider (located in SoCal) might be selling their book of business. If you’re being approached by your current retail power provider to execute a 5-year retail power contract….that’s your confirmation that they are up for sale.
CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery.
THE BOTTOM LINE – NYMEX fell $0.30 over the last 30 hours. The reason seems to from a shift in weather patterns, an increase in production, followed by the holiday weekend being over bought and now trying to sell off extra positions. Fickle market! Basis falls further and we will stick with what we said yesterday - California Basis, and the fact that we are at near maximum intrastate storage levels is our saving grace right now. The balance of 2024 basis prices are down approximately $0.50 from just 1 week ago.
Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.75 $2.65 $2.05
3 MONTHS $3.55 $4.10 $3.74
6 MONTHS $3.95 $4.55 $4.10
12 MONTHS $4.85 $5.40 $4.95
24 MONTHS $5.15 $5.80 $5.44
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.70 $4.35 $3.95
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.65 $6.20 $5.88