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How Cheap Would Energy Be Right Now If Weather Weren't So Extreme???

How Cheap Would Energy Be Right Now If Weather Weren't So Extreme???

🌟 One Minute Energy Update - 07/31/24 🌟

🚨 Today’s Highlights:

  • 🏅 Shoutout to the US Women’s 7’s Rugby Olympic Team on winning the Bronze Medal. Never give up!
  • 🔥 Park Fire burns over 360,000 acres, spreading 45+ miles. 18% contained.
  • 🌫️ Smoke from Park Fire reaching the Great Lakes region.
  • 🌞 Wildfires in the West limit solar power.
  • 🔥 Extreme heat over the next 7 days.
  • 📉 Increased storage & production push prices down. NYMEX prices down $0.33 (14%) since the start of 2024.

📊 Market Updates:

  • #NYMEXUp 📉 #PG&EBasisUp 📈 #SoCalBasisUp 📈 #WeatherBullish 🌡️ #CarbonOffsets 🌍
  • Open = $2.12, High = $2.14, Low = $2.06, Current = $2.06. Down $0.05 from a week ago.
  • NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates: 2024 = $2.57, 2025 = $3.24, 2026 = $3.60.

📈 NYMEX Averages:

  • 2024 (through July) = $2.19
  • 2023 = $2.73
  • 2022 = $6.64
  • 2021 = $3.84

🔍 Technical Indicators:

  • Below 50-day ($2.52) & 20-day ($2.19) averages, above 9-day ($2.08) average.
  • Resistance @ $2.17/$2.22, Pivot @ $2.08, Support @ $2.03/$1.95.

💼 Basis Updates:

  • PG&E CG Basis & SoCal CG Basis prices remain high, downturn anticipated.
  • 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg. $9.83; 2024 avg. $3.24 through July.
  • 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg. $10.95; 2024 avg. $3.03 through July.
  • 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index avg. $8.14; 2024 avg. $2.45 through July.

🌐 LNG & NG Exports/Imports:

  • LNG Exports = 11.4Bcf
  • Mexico Exports = 6.9Bcf
  • Canadian Imports = 6.0Bcf

⚡ Supply & Demand:

  • Today’s Est. Supply = 109.5Bcf, 7-day Avg. = 109.15Bcf
  • Today’s Est. Production = 103.2Bcf
  • Today’s Est. Demand = 101.5Bcf, 7-day Avg. = 102.78Bcf
  • National demand VERY HIGH over the next 7 days.

📦 Storage:

  • 249Bcf higher than last year, 456Bcf above 5-year avg. of 2,775Bcf.
  • Current storage = 3,231Bcf, above 5-year historical range.
  • Oct ’24 projections: 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf; March ’25: 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.

🌡️ Weather:

  • Heat Indexes over 100 for most of the U.S. through Friday.
  • NatGasWeather.com forecast: Hot high pressure with highs of upper 80s to 100s for strong national demand. Cooler in Northwest & Great Lakes initially, warming late week.
  • Today = Bullish, 5-10 days = Bullish, 10-15 days = Bearish, Aug-Oct = Bullish, Oct-Dec = Turning Bearish, Winter (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25) = Bearish.

🌀 Hurricane Season:

  • CSU predicts 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes.

🛢️ Crude Oil:

  • Current Cash price = $76.87.
  • Forward estimates: 2024 = $73.66, 2025 = $70.79, 2026 = $68.03.

🔌 CA Retail Power:

  • Grid Status = Normal. CAISO pricing = $35 - $48.
  • CA Power Generation %: NatGas 35.0%, RE 25.0% (74% Wind), Hydro 11.4%, Imports 18.9%, Nuclear 9.6%, Batteries 0.1%.

🌍 Carbon Offsets:

  • California & other states will mandate companies to buy carbon offsets starting in 2025. Get ahead of the 2025 demand for more options and better prices. We can help.

🔍 Bottom Line:

  • Bears in today's highlights. Bullish factors for Q4: expected production decrease, increase in LNG exports with more projects online in Q4 2024 and 2025, and storage levels falling short of last year and 5-year averages. Weather will be a key factor.

🌐 RFP ES Expansion:

  • Now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, TX (parts), PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA.
  • Submit RFPs for quotes on an individual basis at RFPES.com.

Need a quote? Visit RFPES.com and submit your Request for Proposal. It takes less than 5 minutes! ⏳

#EnergyUpdate #NaturalGas #MarketTrends #EnergyProcurement #CarbonOffsets #WeatherImpact #LNGExports #SupplyDemand #EnergyStorage #HurricaneSeason #CrudeOil #RetailPower