Is a Buck Fifty The NYMEX Floor??

THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-16-24

Is $1.50 The NYMEX Floor??

***#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearish #CarbonOffsetsSoldHere ***

***NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - ****Open = $1.69, High = $1.77, Low = $1.69, Current = $1.71. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.22 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.50 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.43, 2025 = $3.49, 2026 = $3.95.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

*We are below the 50-day ($1.76), the 20-day ($1.75) and the 9-day ($1.78) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $1.77/$1.86. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.768. *

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.72/$1.67. *

BASIS* – PG&E CG Basis prices are down a few cents while SoCal CG Basis is up a few cents. *

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *

***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ****– LNG exports hit 10.8Bcf/D yesterday. Some believe it could drop to single digits by Friday. Exports to Mexico = 6.0Bcf/D. Imports from Canada = 5.3Bcf. *

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 103.1Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 104.1Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 98.5Bcf. *

*Today’s Est. Demand = 89.9Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 93.2Bcf. 7-day Demand forecast remains low through Thursday then moves to high. *

***RIG COUNT ****– By the numbers – 2023 fell 20% from 2022. 2022 was up 33% from 2021. And 2021 was up 67% from 2020. The most recent oil rig count fell by 2 to 506 active rigs. The natural gas rig count fell by 1 to 109 active rigs. *

STORAGE* – Bearish storage levels are increasing. Storage is expected to finish the injection season between 3.9Tcf and 4.0Tcf. We are 435Bcf above this time last year and 633Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,650Bcf. At 2,283Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *

WEATHER* – NatGasWeather.com has this to say for the next 6 days, “Weather systems will impact many areas of the US over the next few days w/showers, temperatures w/highs of 50s-80s. 90s in the Southwest deserts and S. Texas. Cooler vs normal weather systems will impact the northern, central, and eastern US Fri-Mon w/rain, snow, and chilly lows of upper 20s and 30s, highs of 40s-60s for stronger national demand.” *

*5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *

CRUDE –* Up. Current price = $85.42. Forward estimates: 2024 = $83.18, 2025 = $76.53, 2026 = $71.70. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO just over $38 per MWH. Up $8 per MWH from 1 week ago.*

CARBON OFFSETS –* We’re going to see a lot of carbon offsets coming out of Africa as their government finally gets serious about implementing “clean cooking” mandates/projects. If you’re looking to buy carbon offsets, many of our Supply Partners offer carbon offset menus (type of carbon offset, price per unit, etc.) for review and purchase.*

RENEWABLE ENERGY* – ERCOT is asking power generators to cancel planned outages this week due to a strong increase in cooling demand expected this week. *

***THE BOTTOM LINE ***– The “experts” are saying $1.50 is the absolute floor for NYMEX. We’re approximately $0.20 from that bottom price right now for May ’24. On the upside, they are saying once we hit the $2.00 mark, $2.50 will soon follow. Outside of May ’24 and June ’24, NYMEX is already above $2.00/$2.50 marks. Sone of you holding out for $1.50 or even sub $1.50, could end up paying well above those target prices if (when) summer bulls show up.

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of May ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $2.51 $2.41 $2.11

3 MONTHS $2.95 $3.32 $2.97

6 MONTHS $3.37 $4.08 $3.74

12 MONTHS $4.64 $5.29 $4.66

24 MONTHS $5.09 $5.81 $5.41

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.37 $4.06 $3.54

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$6.40 $7.22 $6.79