Look at that NYMEX run!!
THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-16-24
#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisFlat #SoCalBasisDown #WeatherWeakening #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.40, High = $2.57, Low = $2.38, Current = $2.50. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.30 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.10 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.82, 2025 = $3.48, 2026 = $3.91.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are above the 50-day ($1.87), the 20-day ($2.05) and the 9-day ($2.30) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.50/$2.60.
THE PIVOT @ $2.45.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.34/$2.27.
BASIS – PG&E CG Basis is flat so far today, down from where it has been for the past few weeks. SoCal Basis continues to fall.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. Currently averaging $3.51 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. Currently averaging $3.29 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. Currently averaging $2.65 through May ’24.
LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.3Bcf. Mexico Exports = 6.6Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.4Bcf.
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Today’s Est. Supply = 104.3Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 102.3Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 95.2Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 95.2Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 96.1Bcf. Low demand for the rest of the week.
RIG COUNT – The latest rig count (5-10-24) has the following - oil rig count is down 3 rigs for a total of 496 active rigs. The natural gas rig count is up 1 for a total of 103 active rigs. The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs. Overall rig count = 603. We are down 128 active rigs compared to this time last year.
STORAGE – This week’s estimate finished up at 79Bcf. Last year was 93Bcf while the 5-year average is 90Bcf. Today’s report shows an injection of only 70Bcf. The market reacted with a $0.17 upward swing. We are currently 421Bcf above this time last year and 620Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,013Bcf. At 2,633Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. Storage is projected to be 3.90Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.70Tcf for March ’25. Early projection for next week’s storage report is an injection of 83Bcf.
WEATHER – NatGasWeather’s latest forecast, “Texas will cool several degrees today as a weather system moves through, but thereafter, the southern 1/3 of the US will be very warm to hot as high-pressure rules w/highs of 80s and 90s, locally 100s Southwest. The northern 2/3 of the US will be comfortable w/highs of 60s-80s as weather systems bring showers.”
5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish.
CRUDE – Down. Current price = $78.64. Forward estimates: 2024 = $77.11, 2025 = $72.96, 2026 = $69.41.
CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing falls to just over $30 per MWH.
CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery.
THE BOTTOM LINE – Same as yesterday (production down/LNG exports up/bullish summer weather forecasts PLUS a storage injection that came in well below estimates, last year’s injection, and the 5-year average for this time of year. Basis remains a good buy. If we’re waiting for NYMEX to fall below the $2.00 range, we may be waiting for some time.
Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $3.07 $3.06 $2.62
3 MONTHS $3.68 $4.33 $4.10
6 MONTHS $4.02 $4.68 $4.20
12 MONTHS $4.88 $5.46 $4.89
24 MONTHS $5.20 $5.88 $5.47
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.75 $4.48 $4.15
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.65 $6.22 $5.85