NYMEX and CA Basis are Falling
THE One Minute Energy Update for 6-20-24
#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalBasisDown #WeatherBullish #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Starts the Week Down.
Open = $2.90, High = $2.94, Low = $2.80 Current = $2.81. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.25 from 1 week ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $3.18, 2025 = $3.64, 2026 = $3.90.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $2.09. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are above the 50-day ($2.34), the 20-day ($2.77) and below the 9-day ($2.93) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.86/$2.97.
THE PIVOT @ $2.85.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.80/$2.73.
BASIS – Both PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis prices continue to fall.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.51 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. 2024 averaging $3.29 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. 2024 averaging $2.65 through May ’24.
LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.2Bcf/D. Mexico Exports = 7.1Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.8Bcf.
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK –
Today’s Est. Supply = 106.7Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 106.95Bcf.
Today’s Est. Production = 100.6Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 97.1Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 95.52Bcf. Overall, HIGH demand this week.
RIG COUNT – The most recent active rig count (6-14-24) fell by 4 for a total of 590 active rigs. Oil fell by 4 for a total of 488 active rigs. Natgas is unchanged for a total of 98 active natgas rigs. The miscellaneous rig count = 4 active rigs. Active rigs are down by 97 rigs compared to this time last year.
STORAGE – The next storage report comes out June 21, 2024. We are currently 364Bcf above this time last year and 573Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,401Bcf. At 2,974Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections are 3.95Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.75Tcf for March ’25.
WEATHER – NatGasWeather’s 6-day forecast is, “Strong high pressure will rule the eastern US w/hot highs of upper 80s to mid-90s. Temperatures are comfortable across the Northwest and Great Plains w/highs of 60s to 80s as weather systems linger. Texas will cool the next couple days into the 70s and 80s due to heavy rains from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Much of the US will be very warm to hot this weekend into next week w/highs of 80-100s, hottest SW deserts.”
5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = turning bearish. Summer (July – Sep) forecast = turning bearish.
  
CRUDE – Up. Current Cash price = $78.62. Forward estimates: 2024 = $79.62, 2025 = $74.74, 2026 = $70.67. 2023 saw the highest consumption of crude on file. It’s not going away, we’ll continue to rely more and more on it, regardless of what Greta Thunberg says.
CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing moves up to just over $18 per MWH.
CARBON OFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – NYMEX is above the historical buying range (we have enjoyed in the past) of $2.50 - $2.75. Both Citygate delivery points show months with pricing at or below the historical range. If you think we’ll see this downward trend become constant, you’re wrong.
Indicative Fixed Prices out of July ’24
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.95 $3.15 $2.80
3 MONTHS $3.40 $3.95 $3.53
6 MONTHS $4.30 $4.85 $4.33
12 MONTHS $4.60 $5.10 $4.77
24 MONTHS $5.05 $5.60 $5.20
Summer Strip (July ’24 – Oct ‘24)
$3.30 $4.02 $3.80
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.47 $6.05 $5.70