NYMEX & Basis Up Slightly

THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-9-24

***#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisDown #WeatherShifting #CarbonOffsetsSoldHere ***

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.77, High = $1.84, Low = $1.92, Current = $1.83. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.10 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.10 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.53, 2025 = $3.44, 2026 = $3.80.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

*We are above the 50-day ($1.80), the 20-day ($1.73) and above the 9-day ($1.81) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $1.89/$1.95. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.81. *

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.79/$1.73. *

BASIS* – PG&E Basis prices are up slightly again today. SoCal Basis is down ever so slightly today. *

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *

***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ****– LNG exports averaging 13.0Bcf.D. Exports to Mexico = 6.5Bcf/D. Imports from Canada = 4.6Bcf. *

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 106.5Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 107.17Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 102.3Bcf. *

Today’s Est. Demand = 98.1Bcf. Lowest demand of the past 7 days. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 104.78Bcf. 7-day Demand forecast is light to very light for the next 7-days.

***RIG COUNT ****– The oil rig count is up 2 from last week for a total of 508 active rigs. Natural gas rigs fell by 2 for a total of 110 active rigs. Check this out – gas rigs are 93.2% below the all-time of 1,606 active gas rigs recorded in 2008. *

STORAGE* – We are 422Bcf above this time last year and 633Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,626Bcf. At 2,259Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *

WEATHER* – *NatGasWeather.com* has this to say for the next 6 days, “It’s a messy weather pattern this week as numerous weather systems track across the US w/showers and thunderstorms, including flooding rains over the Southeast the next few days and a strong storm into the East late in the week. Although, overall, temperatures will be mild over the northern US w/highs of upper 40s-60s, while very nice to warm over the southern US w/highs of 60s-80s, locally 90s.”*

*5 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *

CRUDE –* Falling. Current price = $85.55. That’s’ up $2 from yesterday’s opening price. Forward estimates: 2024 = $83.25, 2025 = $76.24, 2026 = $71.09. *

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO nearing $23 per MWH. *

CARBON OFFSETS –* We’re going to see a lot of carbon offsets coming out of Africa as their government finally gets serious about implementing “clean cooking” mandates/projects. If you’re looking to buy carbon offsets, many of our Supply Partners offer carbon offset menus (type of carbon offset, price per unit, etc.) for review and purchase.*

RENEWABLE ENERGY* – During the solar eclipse yesterday across Texas, solar generation dropped from 14,000MW to less than 1,000MW. This lack of solar was compensated for by nearly a 50% increase in natural gas demand from 18,000MW to 28,000MW.*

***THE BOTTOM LINE ****– NYMEX and Basis prices are up slightly right now. The driving factors and fundamentals suggest better pricing could take place later this week into next week. Right now, no need to panic. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of May ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $2.65 $2.58 $2.33

3 MONTHS $3.05 $3.45 $3.10

6 MONTHS $3.50 $4.20 $3.80

12 MONTHS $4.70 $5.35 $4.72

24 MONTHS $5.10 $5.80 $5.40

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.43 $4.16 $3.65

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$6.45 $7.20 $6.78