NYMEX Continues to Fall Hard

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/15/24

***#NYMEXDownAgain #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeatherIsBearish #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ****– After a slight pause in movement this morning, prices have now dropped below the $1.60 mark. Still $0.08 above where some “experts” expect NYMEX to bottom out. *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.66, High = $1.68, Low = $1.57, Current = $1.58. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.45 from 1 week ago and down approximately $1.05 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.19, 2025 = $3.32, 2026 = $3.70. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.46), the 20-day ($2.13), and the 9-day ($1.83) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.66/$1.72. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.62.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.57/$1.53. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are down strong on the day. Forward months aren’t falling at the same rate but there is weakness growing and rightly so. Our time nears!*

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports are averaging 14.1Bcf/D so far this week.*

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** ***Today’s Est. Supply = 112.1Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 111.6Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 105.2Bcf. Demand - Today’s Est. Demand = 122.0Bcf. Demand 7-Day Avg. = 119.9Bcf/D. Demand is lower than normal.

*RIG COUNT – Next rig count comes out tomorrow. As of 2-9-24 – Overall rig ****count = 623, down from 761 active rigs from 1 year ago. The oil rig count is unchanged from last week’s count for a total of 499. Natural gas rigs increased by 4 rigs for a total of 121. *

WEATHER* – NG Weather has this to say for 2-15-24 – 2-21-24, “Mild temperatures for much of the US today w/highs of 30s-50s across the northern US besides locally colder 20s. The southern US will be mild to nice w/highs of 50s-70s. Frosty air will spread across the Plains, Midwest, & Northeast this weekend w/highs of 20s-40s, lows of 0s-20s. A warm break will follow over much of the US during the middle of next week w/highs of upper 30s-50s for the northern US, and 50s-80s southern US. Overall, light national demand through Friday, then high Saturday-Monday.” 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – The “experts” predicted a 66Bcf withdrawal. The actual Storage Report shows a net withdrawal of 49Bcf. We are now 255Bcf higher than last year and 348Bcf above the 5-year average 2,187Bcf. At 2,535Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. With such high projections to end the withdrawal season plus record setting injection projections, there could be quite a glut of natural gas, even though EIA slashed their end of season projection 3 weeks ago from 2.155Tcf to 1.905Tcf.*

***CRUDE – ****Inventories are up and so are the prices. Up approximately $1.15 from yesterday’s close. Current price = $77.77. Forward estimates are down; 2024 = $75.03, 2025 = $70.68, 2026 = $67.47. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO stays just above $49MWH. *

***UNRELIABLE

RENEWABLE ENERGY – ***Here’s a link from Yahoo Finance on the 13 best renewable energy stocks. When the government refuses to let it fail (because they are grossly invested), the stocks should soar.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/13-best-renewable-energy-stocks-101912614.html;

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – For now, the strategy remains the same - ****Buy NYMEX now. Wait for a downward correction on California Basis before buying more. *