NYMEX Dips Below $2.00

🔥 THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-2-24 🔥

Today’s Highlights:

📉 Stock Market: Tanks at today’s opening bell after hearing the weak jobs report.

🔻 NatGas Market: Experiencing downward pressure due to strong production and storage levels.

🌡️ Weather Impact: Continued above-normal weather patterns could increase demand, potentially bringing bulls to the market.

Production & Prices:

📈 NatGas Production: July ’24: 102.4Bcf/D June ’24: 100.2Bcf/D May ’24: 99.4Bcf/D (17-month low)

🇪🇺 European NatGas Prices: Highest in 2024 due to: Tensions in the Middle East More LNG diverted to China Hotter than normal weather across parts of Europe

Market Trends:

💡 NYMEX: Open: $1.98 High: $2.02 Low: $1.96 Current: $2.01 (Down $0.10 from a week ago) Calendar Year Estimates:2024: $2.43 2025: $3.18 2026: $3.55 Monthly Averages:2024 (through July): $2.19 2023: $2.73 2022: $6.64 2021: $3.84

📉 Below 50-day ($2.48), 20-day ($2.14), and 9-day ($2.04) averages.

📊 Resistance: Starting @ $2.07/$2.18

🌀 Pivot: @ $2.02

🛡️ Support: Starting @ $1.91/$1.85

Basis Prices:

🔹 PG&E CG:2023 Average: $9.83 2024 Average (through July): $3.24

🔹 SoCal CG:2023 Average: $10.95 2024 Average (through July): $3.03

🔹 SoCal Border:2023 Average: $8.14 2024 Average (through July): $2.45

Exports & Imports:

🌐 LNG Exports: 12.9Bcf

🇲🇽 Mexico Exports: 6.8Bcf

🇨🇦 Canadian Imports: 6.8Bcf

Supply & Demand:

🚰 Supply: Today’s Estimate: 108.36Bcf 7-Day Avg.: 108.3Bcf

🔧 Production: Today’s Estimate: 101.9Bcf

⚡ Demand: Today’s Estimate: 97.2Bcf Latest 7-Day Avg.: 102.8Bcf National demand remains VERY HIGH over the next 7 days.

Rig Count:

🔩 Latest Count (7-26-24):589 active rigs Oil: Up by 5 to 482 rigs NatGas: Down by 2 to 101 rigs Miscellaneous: Remains at 6 rigs

📉 Compare to 664 active rigs this time last year.

🚀 Productivity is up 20% despite a near 15% decrease in rig count.

Storage:

🏦 Latest Report: Injection of 18Bcf (Guesstimate was 33Bcf)

📈 We are 252Bcf higher than this time last year, and 441Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,808Bcf.

🔮 Projections: Oct ’24: 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf March ’25: 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf

Weather Forecast:

☀️ Aug 4-8: Hotter weather expected, boosting demand for air-conditioning.

📅 Forecasts: Today: Bullish 5-10 days: Bearish 10-15 days: Bearish Aug – Oct: Bullish Oct – Dec: Bearish Winter (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25): Bearish

Hurricane Season:

🌪️ Prediction: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes (Colorado State University)

Crude Oil:

🛢️ Current Cash Price: $74.77

📉 Forward Estimates:2024: $75.14 2025: $71.99 2026: $68.68

California Retail Power:

⚡ PJM: Hits record highs

🌐 CAISO: Website down again! (Grid Status = Normal, Current pricing = $39 - $45)

🔋 CA Power Generation: NatGas: 52.7% Renewable Energy: 12.7% (54% from Wind) Hydro: 11.1% Imports: 15.3% Nuclear: 8.5% Batteries: 0.0%

Carbon Offsets:

🌿 Mandates: Starting as early as 2025. Get ahead of the demand for more options and greater price range.

Bottom Line:

📅 3-Month Weather Forecasts: Critical to monitor.

📊 High production, low power generation demand, LNG terminals not at full capacity, and no unscheduled pipeline maintenance could lead to lower NYMEX and Basis prices in the shoulder season (late Sep – first week of Nov). Be aware. Be patient.

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Stay informed and prepared! 📊🔍 #EnergyUpdate #NatGas #MarketTrends #EnergyProduction #WeatherImpact #CarbonOffsets #RFPES