NYMEX Doesn't Care About Summer Heat

🔥 THE One Minute Energy Update for 7-12-24 🔥

Before we dive in:

🚫 Power Outages in Texas: Hundreds of thousands are still without power, with restoration expected in 2-3 weeks.

🔥Heatwaves: Deadly heatwaves are sweeping across the West and Southwest.

🌲 Wildfires: Over 50,000 acres are burning in California.

#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBullishBeforeBearish #CarbonOffsets

📉 NYMEX and Spot Prices Falling:

Open: $2.26

High: $2.28

Low: $2.24

Current: $2.26

Down ~$0.10 from last week.

📅 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:

2024: $2.61

2025: $3.35

2026: $3.73

📊 Average Prices:

2024 YTD: $2.19

2023: $2.73

2022: $6.64

2021: $3.84

📈 Technical Indicators:

Below 50-day ($2.55), 20-day ($2.62), and 9-day ($2.40) averages.

Resistance: $2.32/$2.37

Pivot: $2.29

Support: $2.23/$2.20

🔺 Basis Prices: Both PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis are up due to elevated cooling demand but may correct downward by next Friday.

🔹 PG&E CG Index:

2023 Avg: $9.83

2024 Avg (through June): $3.24

🔹 SoCal CG Index:

2023 Avg: $10.95

2024 Avg (through June): $3.03

🔹 SoCal Border Index:

2023 Avg: $8.14

2024 Avg (through June): $2.45

🚢 Exports and Imports:

LNG Exports: 11.9 Bcf/D

Mexico Exports: 6.8 Bcf

Canadian Imports: 7.0 Bcf

📈 Supply and Demand:

Today's Supply: 108.3 Bcf

7-Day Avg Supply: 108.48 Bcf

Today's Production: 101.7 Bcf

Today's Demand: 105.5 Bcf

7-Day Avg Demand: 104.51 Bcf

🔧 Rig Count (as of 7-5-24):

Oil Rigs: 479

NatGas Rigs: 101

Miscellaneous Rigs: 5

📦 Storage:

Latest Injection: 65 Bcf (Estimate: 54 Bcf)

Current Storage: 3,199 Bcf (283 Bcf higher than last year, 504 Bcf above 5-year avg)

Next Week's Estimate: 20 Bcf Injection

Following Week's Estimate: 28 Bcf Injection

🌦️ Weather (July 12-18):

Highs of 90s-100s, cooler 80s in the far north.

Cooling next week across Midwest & Northeast.

Hurricane Season Update: Increased to 25 named storms for 2024.

📉 Forecasts:

Today: Bullish

5-10 Days: Bearish

10-15 Days: Bearish

3-Month: Bearish

Summer (July-Sep): Bearish

Winter (Dec-Feb): Bearish

🛢️ Crude Oil:

Current Cash Price: $83.32

Forward Estimates: 2024: $80.44, 2025: $75.32, 2026: $71.08

EIA Avg for 2024: $89

🔋 CA Retail Power:

CAISO Pricing: Over $98 per MWH

🌍 Carbon Offsets:

Mandates starting as early as 2025. Get ahead of the demand!

🔍 Bottom Line:

NYMEX falling despite high temps and increased cooling demand.

Potential further price collapse next week.

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#EnergyUpdate #NaturalGas #EnergyProcurement #MarketAnalysis #RFPES