NYMEX Down Before EIA Storage Report
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-8-24
Today’s highlights -
. NYMEX NG prices jumped 5% yesterday.
. NYMEX NatGas prices falling before EIA’s Storage Report later today.
. The “experts” believe natgas prices will increase through the end of 2024 due to these 2 ongoing driving factors: a decrease in production and an increase in power demand.
. Debby weakening to a tropical depression.
#NYMEX Open = $2.10, High = $2.10, Low = $2.05, Current = $2.05. Down approximately $0.05 from 1 week ago. Down as much as $0.65 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.56, 2025 = $3.24, 2026 = $3.53.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.43), the 20-day ($2.08) but above the 9-day ($2.01) average.
#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.15/$2.19.
#THE PIVOT @ $2.08.
#SUPPORT - Starting @ $1.97/$2.04.
#BASIS – #PG&ECGBasis flattening out over past few days. Still above last month’s collapse. #SoCalCGBasis prices have started to weaken but, like PG&E CG, still above last month’s collapse.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.34 through Aug ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. 2024 averaging $3.05 through Aug ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. 2024 averaging $2.51 through Aug ’24.
#LNG EXPORTS, #NatGasEXPORTS, #NatGasIMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.9Bcf. Mexico Exports = 6.8Bcf. Canadian Imports = 6.3Bcf.
#SUPPLY - Today’s = 106.6Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 108.84Bcf.
#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 100.7Bcf. Down 1.8% Y/Y.
#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 105.0Bcf. Latest 7 Day Avg. = 106.92Bcf. National demand remains Moderate-High the next 7-days.
#RIGCOUNT – The next rig count comes out 8-9-24. Last week’s rig count reported - Oil remains the same at 482 rigs, natgas falls by 3 to 98 rigs, miscellaneous remains at 6 rigs. Compare that to 659 active rigs this time last year.
#STORAGE – Today’s Storage Report guesstimate is 22Bcf. Compare it to 25Bcf last year and the 5-yr avg of 38Bcf. We are currently 252Bcf higher than this time last year and 441Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,808Bcf. At 3,249Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
Hurricane Season Update – TS Debby is now TR Debby. Moving inland with its new path set to move up through western NC/VA, PA, central NY, and up into New England.
#CRUDE – Up on geopolitical concerns and a drop in EIA crude inventories. Current Cash price = $75.34. Forward estimates: 2024 = $73.88, 2025 = $70.74, 2026 = $67.44.
#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = R.M.O. continues. CAISO current pricing = $37 - $42.
The latest % for #CaliforniaPowerGeneration = NatGas @ 28.2%, RE @ 57.7$ 17.5% (Solar makes up 88.9% of that), Hydro @ 4.7%, Imports @ 2.7%, Nuclear @ 6.7%. Impressive generation, solar.
#WEATHER – NatGasWeather.com’s 6-day forecast, “The Midwest, Plains, Ohio Valley, and East will cool into the upper 60s to lower 80s through early next week as weather systems track through with showers and thunderstorms, including widespread rain from remnants of tropical cyclone Debby spreading northward up the East Coast. Much of the western and southern US will remain very warm to hot w/highs of upper 80s to 100s, hottest California to Texas.”
Today = Bearish. 5 – 10-day forecast = Bearish. 10-15-day forecast = Bearish. Aug – Oct forecast = Bearish. Oct – Dec forecast = Bearish. Winter Forecast (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25) = Bearish.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – Short term pricing remains good. Basis could weaken early next before strengthening by mid-month due to above normal temperatures pushing up cooling demand.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. So, going forward, rather than having a massive indicative daily pricing sheet (that changes by the minute), we will simply quote any requests you may have on an individual basis. We will still report on NYMEX and Western Region Basis movement.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). THE RFP will be sent to all our supply partners who are supplying energy in that region. You choose the time and date you would like to receive the quote – please give 48 hours from the time you submit to the time you want to receive the quote. It takes less than 5 minutes to submit a request for proposal.