NYMEX down hard from last week's 5 month high.

🌟 THE One Minute Energy Update - 6/21/24 🌟
🔢 Quick Power Generation Numbers (vs. 2023):
NatGas ➡️ +1%, supplying 43% overall, forecasted to rise by 3% in 2025 (likely an underestimate due to growing AI/Semi-Conductor market demand) 🌐💡
Wind ➡️ -1%, supplying 8% overall
Solar ➡️ +1%, supplying 5% overall ☀️
Hydro ➡️ No change, supplying 6% overall 💧
Nuclear ➡️ +1%, supplying 19% overall ⚛️
Coal ➡️ +3%, supplying 19% overall 🏭
🔖 #NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherTurning #CarbonOffsets
📉 NYMEX Update:
NYMEX is down from last week’s 5-month high of $3.13. Up nearly 80% from April '24 lows.
Current Prices: Open = $2.72, High = $2.77, Low = $2.67, Current = $2.72.
Estimates: 2024 = $3.07, 2025 = $3.61, 2026 = $3.88.
Monthly Averages: 2024 YTD = $2.09, 2023 = $2.73, 2022 = $6.64, 2021 = $3.84.
Support & Resistance: Resistance @ $2.88/$3.02, Pivot @ $2.80, Support @ $2.66/$2.57.
📈 Basis Prices:
PG&E CG and SoCal CG Basis prices are slightly up but still much cheaper than last year.
2023 Averages:
PG&E CG = $9.83
SoCal CG = $10.95
SoCal Border = $8.14.
2024 Averages (through May):
PG&E CG = $3.51
SoCal CG = $3.29
SoCal Border = $2.65.
🚢 LNG/NG Exports & Imports:
LNG Exports: 13.1Bcf/D
Mexico Exports: 7.2Bcf
Canadian Imports: 6.4Bcf
🔄 Supply & Demand:
Today's Supply: 106.7Bcf, 7-Day Avg. = 106.95Bcf
Today's Production: 100.6Bcf
Today's Demand: 101.4Bcf, 7-Day Avg. = 97.72Bcf
Year-over-Year Demand Increase: +7Bcf
📊 Storage:
Latest report shows an injection of 71Bcf.
Current Storage: 3,045Bcf, 343Bcf above last year, 561Bcf above the 5-year avg. of 2,484Bcf).
Projections: Oct ’24 = 3.95Tcf, March ’25 = 1.70Tcf.
🌦️ Weather Forecast:
5-10 day: Bullish
10-15 day: Bullish
3-month: Turning bearish
Summer: Turning bearish
Winter: Bearish
🛢️ Crude Oil:
Current Price: $81.14
Forward Estimates: 2024 = $80.16, 2025 = $74.96, 2026 = $70.88
⚡ CA Retail Power: CAISO pricing up to just over $18 per MWH.
🌱 Carbon Offsets: Mandates starting as early as 2025 in California and other states. Get ahead now for better options and prices. We can help!
📌 Key Summer Factors:
Weather effects are already priced in unless temperatures stay abnormally high.
Tropical storms/hurricanes may push prices down due to power outages and surplus gas.
Increased LNG/Mexico exports mean less gas for C&I sector.
Producers may cut back if NYMEX prices drop too low.
Pipeline maintenance season can reduce capacity and push prices up.
💼 Indicative Fixed Prices (July '24):
PG&E CG: 1 Month = $2.80, 3 Months = $3.36, 6 Months = $4.29, 12 Months = $4.70, 24 Months = $5.11
SoCal CG: 1 Month = $3.14, 3 Months = $3.80, 6 Months = $4.77, 12 Months = $5.15, 24 Months = $5.70
SoCal Border: 1 Month = $2.79, 3 Months = $3.43, 6 Months = $4.28, 12 Months = $4.87, 24 Months = $5.30
Summer Strip (July ’24 – Oct ‘24):
PG&E CG: $3.40
SoCal CG: $3.80
SoCal Border: $3.40
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25):
PG&E CG: $5.70
SoCal CG: $6.20
SoCal Border: $5.85