RFP Energy Solutions
NYMEX falling further due to natgas supply glut

NYMEX falling further due to natgas supply glut


🌟 THE One Minute Energy Update for 7-24-24 🌟

Kickstart your work week with today’s energy highlights! 💼💡

📉 NYMEX NatGas futures are trading below $2.30, the lowest in 2 months, marking a 5-week decline. ⛽️ Some producers, like EQT, are planning to curtail production in response to low prices. 🏢 RFP ES opens a Mid-Atlantic office and expands its service/supply map.

#NYMEXDownAgain #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearishBeforeBullish #CarbonOffsets

NYMEX Prices:

Open: $2.15

High: $2.17

Low: $2.10

Current: $2.12 (Flat compared to last week)

NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:

2024: $2.58

2025: $3.36

2026: $3.70

NYMEX Monthly Averages:

2024: $2.19

2023: $2.73

2022: $6.64

2021: $3.84

📉 Trading below the 50-day ($2.55), 20-day ($2.31), and 9-day ($2.16) averages. 📈 Resistance: Starting at $2.26/$2.33 📉 Pivot: $2.19 📉 Support: Starting at $2.11/$2.05

Basis Prices:

PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis prices remain elevated.

2023 PG&E CG Index: $9.83

2024 PG&E CG Index (through June): $3.24

2023 SoCal CG Index: $10.95

2024 SoCal CG Index (through June): $3.03

2023 SoCal Border Index: $8.14

2024 SoCal Border Index (through June): $2.45

Exports/Imports:

LNG Exports: 12.2Bcf

Mexico Exports: 6.1Bcf

Canadian Imports: 6.6Bcf

Production & Demand:

2024 Production Avg: 104Bcf/D

2025 Forecast: 105Bcf/D

Today’s Supply: 109.1Bcf

Today’s Production: 102.4Bcf (2% increase expected in 2025)

Today’s Demand: 98.6Bcf

Rig Count:

Oil rigs: 477 (down by 1)

NatGas rigs: 103 (up by 3)

Total active rigs: 586 (last year: 669)

Storage:

Latest injection (7-18-24): 10Bcf (below 28Bcf estimate)

Current storage: 3,209Bcf (250Bcf higher than last year, 465Bcf above 5-year avg.)

Next week’s forecast: 15Bcf injection

Oct '24 storage projections: 3.79-4.06Tcf

March '25 estimate: 1.55-2.00Tcf

Weather:

1 to 6 days: High pressure in the west/southeast, cooler in central US

Hurricane Season: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes

Outlook:

Today: Bearish

5-10 day forecast: Bullish

10-15 day forecast: Bullish

Aug-Oct forecast: Turning Bearish

Oct-Dec forecast: Turning Bearish

Winter (Dec '24-Feb '25): Bearish

Crude Oil:

Current price: $76.94

2024 estimate: $75.59

2025 estimate: $71.83

2026 estimate: $68.42

CA Retail Power:

Grid Status: Normal

CAISO current pricing: $45-$70/MWH

NatGas: 53.7% of power generation

Renewable Energy: 12.5%

Carbon Offsets:

Mandates starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready? Get ahead of the demand with our help.

Bottom Line: The current natgas market is characterized by abundant supply, decreased exports, high storage levels, and growing geopolitical factors, all leading to a bearish outlook.

RFP ES is now serving WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. For quotes, visit RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal.

🔗 Submit your RFP in less than 5 minutes and get quotes within 48 hours. Let us help you secure your energy needs efficiently!