NYMEX falling further due to natgas supply glut
🌟 THE One Minute Energy Update for 7-24-24 🌟
Kickstart your work week with today’s energy highlights! 💼💡
📉 NYMEX NatGas futures are trading below $2.30, the lowest in 2 months, marking a 5-week decline. ⛽️ Some producers, like EQT, are planning to curtail production in response to low prices. 🏢 RFP ES opens a Mid-Atlantic office and expands its service/supply map.
#NYMEXDownAgain #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearishBeforeBullish #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Prices:
Open: $2.15
High: $2.17
Low: $2.10
Current: $2.12 (Flat compared to last week)
NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:
2024: $2.58
2025: $3.36
2026: $3.70
NYMEX Monthly Averages:
2024: $2.19
2023: $2.73
2022: $6.64
2021: $3.84
📉 Trading below the 50-day ($2.55), 20-day ($2.31), and 9-day ($2.16) averages. 📈 Resistance: Starting at $2.26/$2.33 📉 Pivot: $2.19 📉 Support: Starting at $2.11/$2.05
Basis Prices:
PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis prices remain elevated.
2023 PG&E CG Index: $9.83
2024 PG&E CG Index (through June): $3.24
2023 SoCal CG Index: $10.95
2024 SoCal CG Index (through June): $3.03
2023 SoCal Border Index: $8.14
2024 SoCal Border Index (through June): $2.45
Exports/Imports:
LNG Exports: 12.2Bcf
Mexico Exports: 6.1Bcf
Canadian Imports: 6.6Bcf
Production & Demand:
2024 Production Avg: 104Bcf/D
2025 Forecast: 105Bcf/D
Today’s Supply: 109.1Bcf
Today’s Production: 102.4Bcf (2% increase expected in 2025)
Today’s Demand: 98.6Bcf
Rig Count:
Oil rigs: 477 (down by 1)
NatGas rigs: 103 (up by 3)
Total active rigs: 586 (last year: 669)
Storage:
Latest injection (7-18-24): 10Bcf (below 28Bcf estimate)
Current storage: 3,209Bcf (250Bcf higher than last year, 465Bcf above 5-year avg.)
Next week’s forecast: 15Bcf injection
Oct '24 storage projections: 3.79-4.06Tcf
March '25 estimate: 1.55-2.00Tcf
Weather:
1 to 6 days: High pressure in the west/southeast, cooler in central US
Hurricane Season: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes
Outlook:
Today: Bearish
5-10 day forecast: Bullish
10-15 day forecast: Bullish
Aug-Oct forecast: Turning Bearish
Oct-Dec forecast: Turning Bearish
Winter (Dec '24-Feb '25): Bearish
Crude Oil:
Current price: $76.94
2024 estimate: $75.59
2025 estimate: $71.83
2026 estimate: $68.42
CA Retail Power:
Grid Status: Normal
CAISO current pricing: $45-$70/MWH
NatGas: 53.7% of power generation
Renewable Energy: 12.5%
Carbon Offsets:
Mandates starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready? Get ahead of the demand with our help.
Bottom Line: The current natgas market is characterized by abundant supply, decreased exports, high storage levels, and growing geopolitical factors, all leading to a bearish outlook.
RFP ES is now serving WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. For quotes, visit RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal.
🔗 Submit your RFP in less than 5 minutes and get quotes within 48 hours. Let us help you secure your energy needs efficiently!