NYMEX falls below $2.00

🔋⚡ THE One Minute Energy Update for 7-29-24 ⚡🔋

Today’s Highlights:

📉 NYMEX prompt month dipped below $2.00.

📈 NYMEX 2024/2025 Winter strips are on the rise.

🌡️ 7-23-24 marks the midpoint of the air conditioning season.

📊 So far, 2024 has seen 754 population-weighted cooling degree days (CDDs), compared to the long-term average of 636 CDDs and a recent average of 733 CDDs.

🔥 Weather conditions are improving for firefighters battling the Park Fire in California, the 7th largest in state history, equating to the size of the second largest US city.

Market Movements:

🔻 Open = $2.01, High = $2.05, Low = $1.99, Current = $2.03. Down $0.25 from a week ago.

📅 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:

2024 = $2.40

2025 = $3.22

2026 = $3.60

📉 2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through July) = $2.19

2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64

2021 = $3.84

📉 We are below the 50-day ($2.53), 20-day ($2.22), and 9-day ($2.09) averages.

💪 Resistance starts @ $2.06/$2.11. 🔄 The pivot is @ $2.00. 🛡️ Support starts @ $1.97/$1.93.

Basis Prices:

🔹 PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis prices remain high. Watching for a potential downturn this week.

📈 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index = $9.83, 2024 averaging $3.24 through July.

📈 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index = $10.95, 2024 averaging $3.03 through July.

📈 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index = $8.14, 2024 averaging $2.45 through July.

Exports & Imports:

🌐 LNG Exports = 11.6Bcf 🌐 Mexico Exports = 6.8Bcf 🌐 Canadian Imports = 6.1Bcf

Supply & Demand:

🏭 Today's Est. Supply = 106.8Bcf, 7-day Avg. = 106.9Bcf. 🏭 Today's Est. Production = 101.3Bcf. 🏭 Today's Est. Demand = 104.8Bcf, 7-day Avg. = 101.52Bcf. National demand is HIGH this week.

Rig Count:

🔨 Oil rigs up by 5 (total 482), natgas rigs down by 2 (total 101), miscellaneous rigs remain at 6. Total = 589 active rigs, down from 664 last year. Next report on 8-2-24.

Storage:

🛢️ We are 249Bcf higher than last year and 456Bcf above the 5-year average (2,775Bcf). Current storage = 3,231Bcf, above the 5-year range. Oct '24 projections = 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. March '25 estimate = 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.

Weather:

🌡️ 1 to 6-day forecast: Above normal temperatures across most of the US.

🌀 Hurricane Season Update: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes predicted.

Crude Oil:

💰 Up from yesterday’s $2 range drop. Current price = $77.05. Forward estimates:

2024 = $75.73

2025 = $72.09

2026 = $68.78

CA Retail Power:

🔌 Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $36 - $84. NatGas = 30.6% of power generation. RE = 21.7%.

The Bottom Line:

🔥 Record heat, record demand, and prices at 4-year lows. Will prices drop after summer? Odds are even. Locking in NYMEX and Basis months up to 2027 offers great opportunities.

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#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherTurningBullish #CarbonOffsets