NYMEX Falls Further

THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-23-24

Today’s highlights -  

#NYMEX TODAY - Open = $2.06, High = $2.07, Low = $2.00, Current = $2.02.  Approximately -$0.12 from 1 week ago. Approximately -$0.70 from 1 year ago.

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.49, 2025 = $3.25, 2026 = $3.61.

2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11. 

2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73.  

2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64.  

2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. 

We are below the 50-day ($2.29), but above the 20-day ($2.09) and the 9-day ($2.15) average.  

#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.15/$2.26.

#PIVOT @ $2.09. 

#SUPPORT - Starting @ $1.98/$1.92.

#PG&ECGBasis - daily pricing is down approximately $0.12. 

#SoCalCGBasis – daily pricing is down approximately $0.10.

#NYNMEX + BASIS INDEX PRICING

The 2024 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg = $3.34 through Aug ’24.  2023 avg = $9.83.

The 2024 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg = $3.05 through Aug ’24.  2023 avg = $10.95. 

The 2024 SoCal Bdr First of the Month Index avg = $2.51 through Aug ’24.  2023 avg = $8.14. 

LATEST EXPORTS/IMPORTS/SUPPLY/PRODUCTION/DEMAND NUMBERS

#LNG EXPORTS = averaging 12.6Bcf for Aug ’24.  Up 0.6Bcf from Aug ’23.    

#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf.

#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.4Bcf.

#SUPPLY - Today’s = 107.8Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 108.17Bcf. 

#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 101.4Bcf. 

#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 101.3Bcf.  Latest 7 Day Avg. = 102.97Bcf.  Demand will be Moderate today, increasing to High/Very High tomorrow.

#RIGCOUNT – Last week’s rig count (8-16-24) = Oil - 2 to 483 rigs, NatGas = + 1to 98 rigs, miscellaneous – 1 to rigs. Total @ 586.  Last year this time @ 642.   

#STORAGE – We are currently 221Bcf higher than this time last year and 369Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,930Bcf.  At 3,299Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.  The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.85Tcf – 4.02Tcf.  The March ’25 estimate is 1.61Tcf – 1.95Tcf. 

#CRUDE – Up.  Current Cash price = $73.95.  Forward Estimates: 2024 = $72.32, 2025 = $69.62, 2026 = 66.94.

#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = Normal.  CAISO current pricing = $19 - $38. 

#CALIFORNIAPOWERGENERATION as of 5AM, PST – percentages change throughout the day - NatGas @ 30.4%, RE @ 21.5% (Solar -0.9%, Wind 69.6%), Hydro @ 9.8%, Imports @ 28.8%, Nuclear @9.4%. 

#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – No storms to report during the next 48 hours.

#WEATHER – Cooler temperatures for the West and East coasts, hot in the SW and Texas, manageable heat for the Badlands and Gulf states. 

Today = Bearish.  5 – 10-day Forecast = Bullish. 10-15-day Forecast = Bullish.

Sep – Nov Forecast = Bullish.  Oct – Dec Forecast = Bearish.  Dec ’24 – Feb ’25 = Bearish.

#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025.  Is your company ready for that mandate?  Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range.  We can help. 

THE BOTTOM LINE – So far, summer heat really hasn’t shown up, other than a few extreme days.  Production continues to increase but so do LNG and Mexico exports (combining for approximately 20Bcf/D that could be going into domestic pipes or storage – as an esteemed colleague pointed out in conversation – tip of the cap to you C.R.).  NYMEX prices are great right now.  Basis is cheap on the daily spot.  Winter is coming and all we need is a mention of “polar”, “extreme”, “severe”, or any other bull related word, and prices could run hard on us.  It just takes 1 bad month to wipe out a year of good prices.  On the flip side, if we go through this winter with the current forecasts, we could see prices tank in Feb ‘25/march ’25.  The market could go either way, as it has a habit of doing.  So, let’s talk and determine what the best strategy for each of you is. 

RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. 

ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP).  It couldn’t be easier.  We’re always here to discuss the best options in an ever-changing market.