NYMEX Fighting Back

🔋 THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-6-24 🔋

Today’s Highlights:

📈 August '24 FoM Index Prices: Most delivery points are up from July '24. 📞 Call us for specifics!

💹 NYMEX NatGas Prices: Start today up, but cooler temps and high stockpiles keep bears close by.

⚡ Record NatGas Use: On 8-1-24, more natgas was used for power generation than any time in history, capping a record month in July for demand and power generation using natgas.

📊 Dow Jones: Fighting back from yesterday's tanking, up 265 before today’s opening bell.

🌍 Global Markets: Trying to stabilize after 3 days of selloffs.

📉 Economic Reality: Experts realize the economy is worse than expected.

🔥 Park Fire: Burns over 400,000 acres. Warmer temps and clear air conditions are increasing fire activity.

📉 NYMEX Update: Open = $1.95, High = $2.01, Low = $1.90, Current = $2.00. Down $0.07 from 1 week ago and $0.80 from 1 year ago.

📅 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:

2024 = $2.38

2025 = $3.15

2026 = $3.50

📉 Monthly Averages:

2024 (through Aug) = $2.11

2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64

2021 = $3.84

📉 Averages:

50-day = $2.45

20-day = $2.10

9-day = $1.99

📉 Resistance: Starting @ $1.98/$2.02 📉 Pivot: @ $1.93 📉 Support: Starting @ $1.89/$1.84

📈 Basis Prices: Both #PG&ECGBasis and #SoCalCGBasis prices remain elevated. Cooler weather (10 days out) and potential blackouts from the Park Fire could push prices down.

📉 2023 Index Averages:

PG&E CG: $9.83, 2024 = $3.34 (through Aug)

SoCal CG: $10.95, 2024 = $3.05 (through Aug)

SoCal Border: $8.14, 2024 = $2.51 (through Aug)

🌍 Exports/Imports:

#LNGEXPORTS: 12.9Bcf

Mexico Exports: 6.8Bcf

Canadian Imports: 6.9Bcf

📈 Production/Supply & Demand This Week:

Supply: 109.7Bcf, 7 Day Avg: 110.07Bcf

Production: 102.8Bcf

Demand: 106.7Bcf, 7 Day Avg: 107.52Bcf (VERY HIGH today, then easing)

🛢️ Rig Count (8-2-24): 586 active rigs. Oil: 482 (same), NatGas: 98 (down 3), Misc.: 6 (same). Last year: 659.

📊 Storage: 252Bcf higher than last year, 441Bcf above 5-year average (2,808Bcf). Current: 3,249Bcf, above 5-year historical range. Oct '24 projection: 3.87-4.03Tcf, March '25: 1.63-1.95Tcf.

🌪️ Hurricane Debby: Back to TS Debby. Historical rainfall expected in Georgia and the Carolinas.

🛢️ Crude Prices: Current = $73.09. Forward estimates:

2024 = $72.00

2025 = $69.35

2026 = $66.80

⚡ CAISO & California Retail Power: Grid Status = R.M.O. continues. Pricing = $37-$42.

⚡ California Power Generation (yesterday):

NatGas: 47.2%

RE: 17.5% (66% Wind)

Solar: -1.3%

Hydro: 9.8%

Imports: 17.1%

Nuclear: 8.4%

☀️ Weather (NatGasWeather.com):

Hot high pressure across most of the US with highs of 90s-100s.

Cooler exceptions: Midwest, New England, Southeast (due to Debby), highs of 60s-80s.

Greater Midwest, Plains, Ohio Valley, Northeast will cool to upper 60s-70s Wed-Mon.

📉 Forecasts:

Today: Bearish

5-10 days: Bearish

10-15 days: Bearish

Aug-Oct: Bullish

Oct-Dec: Bearish

Winter (Dec '24-Feb '25): Bearish

🌱 Carbon Offsets: California and other states mandating carbon offsets by 2025. Get ahead of demand for better options and prices. We can help!

📉 Bottom Line: If patient, we could see short-term prices drop by next week for both NYMEX and Basis (in many regions).

🌎 RFP ES Coverage: Now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, parts of TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA.

📞 Need a Quote? Visit RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). Quotes available within 48 hours. 🕒 Less than 5 minutes to submit!

#EnergyUpdate #NatGas #MarketTrends #EnergyManagement #CarbonOffsets #RFPES