NYMEX flattening out today before anticipated rally later this week
THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-30-24
***#NYMEXFlat #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBullish #CarbonOffsetsSoldHere ***
***NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - ****Open = $2.05, High = $2.09, Low = $2.02, Current = $2.03. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.15 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.60 from 1 year ago. *
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.65, 2025 = $3.54, 2026 = $4.01.*
*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.743. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *
*We are above the 50-day ($1.76), the 20-day ($1.78) and the 9-day ($1.79) average. *
RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.06/$2.10. *
THE PIVOT* @ $2.02. *
SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.98/$1.93. *
BASIS* – Both PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis are up again today. Driven by anticipated demand increase. *
*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *
***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ****– LNG Exports = 11.5Bcf. Mexico Exports = 6.3Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.5Bcf. We’re down 4.1Bcf/D from 1 year ago. That represents the biggest YoY decline since 2021. *
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 105.4Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 105.14Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 99.9Bcf. Today’s Est. Demand = 96.2Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 94.68Bcf. Overall demand is low for the balance of the week. Next week should see demand rise above normal for this time of year. *
***RIG COUNT ****– The oil rig count is down by 5 for a total of 506 active rigs. The natural gas rig count fell by 1 to 105 active rigs. *
STORAGE* – We are currently 439Bcf above this time last year and 655Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,770Bcf. At 2,425Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *
WEATHER* – Nice temps for most of the US. 50’s in the Pac NW and Rockies. Strong storms across the north and Great Lakes bring cooler temps. 5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = split. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *
CRUDE –* Falling. Current price = $82.65. Forward estimates: 2024 = $80.63, 2025 = $75.22, 2026 = $70.97. *****
CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO pricing moves up to just over $18 per MWH. *
***RENEWABLE ENERGY – ***From EIA, “U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions decreased slightly in 2023 compared to 2022. Although emissions decreased across many economic sectors, more than 80% of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions reductions in 2023 occurred in the electric power sector. These reductions were caused largely by reduced coal-fired electricity generation, as natural gas and solar power made up a larger portion of the generation mix. This change in the generation mix away from coal, which has the highest carbon intensity among fossil fuels, decreased electric power sector CO2 emissions by 7% relative to 2022. We observed notably less energy-related CO2 emissions in the residential and commercial sectors as milder weather reduced energy demand for space heating and cooling in buildings. Emissions from the industrial and transportation sectors remained relatively unchanged.” Is this more to do with lack of weather in 2023 versus 2022?? Maybe.
CARBON OFFSETS –* We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery. *
***THE BOTTOM LINE ****– NYMEX and Basis continue to get support from weather forecasts. Short-term opportunities may be limited for the next few weeks. Opportunities further out exist. *
***Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24 ***
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.69 $2.71 $2.25
3 MONTHS $3.34 $4.09 $3.74
6 MONTHS $3.74 $4.49 $4.09
*12 MONTHS $4.74 $5.29 $4.79
24 MONTHS $5.19 $5.84 $5.44*
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.44 $4.24 $3.74
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.64 $6.19 $6.69