NYMEX is on the upswing
THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-14-24
#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalBasisDown #WeatherWeakening #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.34, High = $2.40, Low = $2.31, Current = $2.34. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.15 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.15 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.79, 2025 = $3.42, 2026 = $3.86.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are above the 50-day ($1.85), the 20-day ($1.98) and the 9-day ($2.22) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.43/$2.49.
THE PIVOT @ $2.32.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.26/$2.15.
BASIS – Both PG&E CG Basis and SoCal Basis are up today.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. Currently averaging $3.51 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. Currently averaging $3.29 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. Currently averaging $2.65 through May ’24.
LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.8Bcf. Mexico Exports = 6.5Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.5Bcf.
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Today’s Est. Supply = 100.5Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 101.3Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 95.0Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 95.1Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 95.9Bcf. Light demand for the rest of the week.
RIG COUNT – The latest rig count (5-10-24) has the following - oil rig count is down 3 rigs for a total of 496 active rigs. The natural gas rig count is up 1 for a total of 103 active rigs. The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs. Overall rig count = 603. We are down 128 active rigs compared to this time last year.
STORAGE – This week’s estimate is 78Bcf. Last year was 93Bcf while the 5-year average IS 90Bcf. There is an 83Bcf projection for the following week. We are currently 444Bcf above this time last year and 640Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,923Bcf. At 2,563Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. Storage is projected to be 3.90Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.70Tcf for March ’25.
WEATHER – NatGasWeather’s latest forecast, “California, the Southwest, Texas, and the South will be warm to hot as high-pressure rules w/highs of 80s-90s, 100s in the Southwest deserts. The rest of the US will be comfortable as weather systems track through with showers and highs of 60s to lower 80s..
5 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish.
CRUDE – Down. Current price = $77.42. Forward estimates: 2024 = $76.66, 2025 = $72.66, 2026 = $69.20.
CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing falls to just over $29 per MWH.
CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery.
THE BOTTOM LINE – Production is down. LNG exports are up. Summer weather forecasts are bullish and pushing up anticipated natural gas demand for power generation to meet increased cooling demand. Despite these bullish factors, summer and 2024 balance of the year prices are decent. We should take advantage of current pricing for the balance of 2024, if we haven’t already. Or you can wait, gamble on the market, and see what happens.
Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.98 $2.94 $2.55
3 MONTHS $3.60 $4.34 $4.11
6 MONTHS $3.94 $4.64 $4.16
12 MONTHS $4.81 $5.41 $4.88
24 MONTHS $5.14 $5.86 $5.45
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.70 $4.45 $4.12
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.61 $6.18 $5.82