NYMEX is up while CA Basis crashes!

The One-Minute Energy Update for May 22, 2024

Key Highlights:

#NYMEXUpAgain 📈 after a down day.

#PG&EBasisDown, #SoCalBasisCrashes 📉.

#WeatherBearish 🌤️.

#CarbonOffsets 🌱 trending.

NYMEX Pricing:

Today’s Performance:

Open: $2.66

High: $2.71

Low: $2.60

Current: $2.71

Weekly Change: Up $0.45.

Yearly Change: Up $0.50.

Calendar Year Estimates:

2024: $2.99

2025: $3.52

2026: $3.95

Historical Averages:

2024 Monthly Avg: $1.98

2023 Monthly Avg: $2.73

2022 Monthly Avg: $6.64

2021 Monthly Avg: $3.84

Technical Indicators:

Above 50-day ($1.94), 20-day ($2.24), and 9-day ($2.50) averages.

Resistance: Starting at $3.00/$3.10.

Pivot: $2.95.

Support: Starting at $2.80/$2.70.

Basis Pricing Trends:

PG&E CG and SoCal CG Basis prices are falling sharply 📉.

2024 First of the Month Index Averages:

PG&E CG: $3.51

SoCal CG: $3.29

SoCal Border: $2.65

Export and Import Data:

LNG Exports: 12.8Bcf/d 🌐

Mexico Exports: 6.9Bcf 🚚

Canadian Imports: 5.5Bcf 🚛

Production, Supply & Demand:

Today’s Estimated Supply: 104.5Bcf 🔄

7-Day Avg. Supply: 102.9Bcf

Today’s Estimated Production: 99.1Bcf ⚙️

Today’s Estimated Demand: 96.3Bcf

7-Day Avg. Demand: 94.5Bcf

Rig Count (as of May 17, 2024):

Oil Rigs: 497 (+1) 🛢️

Natural Gas Rigs: 103 (unchanged) 🔧

Miscellaneous Rigs: 4 (unchanged) ⚙️

Total: 604 (down 116 YoY)

Storage Data:

Tomorrow’s Estimate: Injection of 84 Bcf

Comparisons:

Last Year: 97 Bcf

5-Year Avg.: 92 Bcf

Current Storage: 2,633 Bcf 📦

5-Year Historical Range: Above

Projections:

Oct ’24: 3.90 Tcf

Mar ’25: 1.70 Tcf

Weather Forecast:

Current: Southern US hot (mid-80s to 100s), East briefly warm (upper 80s to low 90s), Northern US comfortable (60s-80s).

5-10 Day Forecast: Bearish 🐻

10-15 Day Forecast: Bearish 🐻

3-Month Forecast: Bullish 🐂

Summer (July-Sep) Forecast: Bullish 🐂

Crude Oil:

Current Price: $78.56 🛢️

Forward Estimates:

2024: $77.78

2025: $73.78

2026: $70.25

CA Retail Power:

CAISO Pricing: Up to just over $12 per MWh ⚡

Carbon Offsets:

Offerings: Range from $1 to $375 per unit 🌿

Bottom Line:

NYMEX: Continues to rise with increasing demand 🔼.

California Basis: Prices are falling with expected volatility 📉.

Indicative Fixed Prices for June 2024:

PG&E CG:

1 Month: $2.93

3 Months: $3.55

6 Months: $3.92

12 Months: $4.80

24 Months: $5.50

SoCal CG:

1 Month: $2.80

3 Months: $4.15

6 Months: $4.55

12 Months: $5.40

24 Months: $6.36

SoCal Border:

1 Month: $2.40

3 Months: $3.81

6 Months: $4.08

12 Months: $4.80

24 Months: $5.98

Summer Strip (Apr-Aug '24):

PG&E CG: $3.88

SoCal CG: $4.55

SoCal Border: $4.20

Winter Strip (Nov '24-Feb '25):

PG&E CG: $5.80

SoCal CG: $6.35

SoCal Border: $5.98