NYMEX NatGas Keeps Falling!!
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-5-24
Today’s highlights -
. Park Fire burns over 2MM acres. Transmission lines could (are expected to) be shut down.
. TS Debby is now Hurricane Debby Cat 1, set to make landfall in south Florida today.
. NYMEX prices dip below $1.90. Prices could fall further if Hurricane Debby knocks out transmission lines, lessening natgas demand for power generation.
. Dow Jones starts this week down over 1,100 points. Global markets are tanking as well. Nervous investors all over the globe. Massive selloffs. Japan sees single worst day since 1987.
. European natgas prices hit 4-week high, giving support to U.S. natgas prices.
#NYMEX Open = $1.95, High = $1.96, Low = $1.88, Current = $1.94. Down $0.15 from 1 week ago. Down as much as $0.75 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.42, 2025 = $3.17, 2026 = $3.54.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through July ‘24) = $2.19. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.46), the 20-day ($2.12) and the 9-day ($2.00) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.02/$2.07.
THE PIVOT @ $1.97.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $1.91/$1.84.
BASIS – Both #PG&ECGBasis and #SoCalCGBasis prices remain elevated. Cooler weather (10 days out) and potential blackouts from the Park Fire could push Basis prices down.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.24 through July ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. 2024 averaging $3.03 through July ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. 2024 averaging $2.45 through July ’24.
#LNG EXPORTS, #NatGasEXPORTS, #NatGasIMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.9Bcf. Mexico Exports = 6.8Bcf. Canadian Imports = 6.9Bcf.
#PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & #DEMAND THIS WEEK –
Today’s Est. Supply = 109.2Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 108.8Bcf.
Today’s Est. Production = 102.4Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 101.7Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 101.7Bcf. National demand will be VERY HIGH through Tuesday, then easing to Moderate-High.
#RIGCOUNT – The latest rig count (8-2-24) = 586 active rigs. Oil remains the same at 482 rigs, natgas falls by 3 to 98 rigs, miscellaneous remains at 6 rigs. Compare that to 659 active rigs this time last year.
#STORAGE – The guesstimate for yesterday’s storage report was an injection of 33Bcf. The actual report shows an injection of 18Bcf. We are currently 252Bcf higher than this time last year and 441Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,808Bcf. At 3,249Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
#WEATHER – NatGasWeather.com’s 6-day forecast, “Hot high pressure will rule most of the US the next 2-days w/highs of 90s-100s for very strong national demand. There are cooler exceptions across the Upper Great Lakes w/highs of upper 60s-70s as weather systems bring showers, while also across the Southeast due to Hurricane Debby w/highs of mid-80s. Greater portions of the Midwest, Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast will cool into the upper 60s and 70s Wed-Sun.”
Today = Bullish. 5 – 10-day forecast = Bearish. 10-15-day forecast = Bearish. Aug – Oct forecast = Bullish. Oct – Dec forecast = Bearish. Winter Forecast (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25) = Bearish.
  
Hurricane Season Update – FL, GA, and SC have already declared state of emergency in preparation for Debby.
#CRUDE – Down. Current Cash price = $72.29. Forward estimates: 2024 = $72.36, 2025 = $69.44, 2026 = $66.71.
#CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = R.M.O. #CAISO declares Restricted Maintenance Operations for 8-5-24. Reasons = “high forecasted loads and ongoing fires threatening transmission facilities”. - Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $31 - $54.
#CaliforniaPowerGeneration % = NatGas @ 47.2%, RE @ 17.5% (66% of that from Wind), Solar @ MINUS 1.3%, Hydro @ 9.8%, Imports @ 17.1%, Nuclear @ 8.4%.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – There is a LOT of uncertainty throughout global financial markets, and that includes NYMEX natgas. NYMEX prices dropped below $1.90 for Sep ’24. We could see natgas gluts due to a drop in power demand as Debby moves up through the Southeastern seaboard, taking out power plants/transmission lines. Take advantage of these opportunities because they do not last.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. So, going forward, rather than having a massive indicative daily pricing sheet (that changes by the minute), we will simply quote any requests you may have on an individual basis. We will still report on NYMEX and Western Region Basis movement.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). THE RFP will be sent to all our supply partners who are supplying energy in that region. You choose the time and date you would like to receive the quote – please give 48 hours from the time you submit to the time you want to receive the quote. It takes less than 5 minutes to submit a request for proposal.