NYMEX NatGas nose dives with storage report.
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-22-24
Today’s highlights -
. NatGas spot prices are down at most major delivery points. This is a change in direction from earlier in the week when TX and CA were bringing bullish support.
. Top producers (EQT for one) expect to cut more production once we enter Autumn. The storage surplus is the reason.
. Storage is dwindling due to 3 straight poor storage reports.
. NYMEX NatGas nose dives with storage report.
#NYMEX TODAY - Open = $2.18, High = $2.20, Low = $2.04, Current = $2.04. Approximately -$0.25 from 1 week ago. Approximately -$0.40 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.59, 2025 = $3.30, 2026 = $3.62.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11.
2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73.
2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64.
2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.34), but above the 20-day ($2.09) and the 9-day ($2.19) average.
#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.22/$2.27.
#PIVOT @ $2.17.
#SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.12/$2.08.
#BASIS – #PG&ECGBasis and #SoCalCGBasis are flat so far this morning. Don’t be surprised if we see a brief bull run.
#NYNMEX + BASIS INDEX PRICING
The 2024 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg = $3.34 through Aug ’24. 2023 avg = $9.83.
The 2024 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg = $3.05 through Aug ’24. 2023 avg = $10.95.
The 2024 SoCal Bdr First of the Month Index avg = $2.51 through Aug ’24. 2023 avg = $8.14.
#LNG EXPORTS = averaging 12.6Bcf for Aug ’24. Up 0.6Bcf from Aug ’23.
#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf.
#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.4Bcf.
#SUPPLY - Today’s = 107.8Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 108.17Bcf.
#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 101.4Bcf.
#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 101.3Bcf. Latest 7 Day Avg. = 102.97Bcf. Demand will be Moderate thru Friday before increasing to High/Very High.
#RIGCOUNT – Last week’s rig count (8-16-24) = Oil - 2 to 483 rigs, NatGas = + 1to 98 rigs, miscellaneous – 1 to rigs. Total @ 586. Last year this time @ 642.
#STORAGE – Today’s report shows an injection of 35Bcf. We are currently 221Bcf higher than this time last year and 369Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,930Bcf. At 3,299Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
#CRUDE – Down. Current Cash price = $72.17. Forward Estimates: 2024 = $71.11, 2025 = $66.63, 2026 = $66.39.
#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $23 - $36.
#CALIFORNIAPOWERGENERATION = NatGas @ 40.4%, RE @ 21.5% (Solar -0.8%, Wind 72.2%), Hydro @ 11.1%, Imports @ 20.3%, Nuclear @ 8.8%.
#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – All clear. No storms to report on.
#WEATHER – Hot and high pressure remains in the West, SW, Central, Texas, and Southern regions. The Northeast, Great lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic continue to enjoy below normal temperatures through most of the weekend.
Today = Bearish. 5 – 10-day Forecast = Bullish. 10-15-day Forecast = Bullish.
Sep – Nov Forecast = Bullish. Oct – Dec Forecast = Bearish. Dec ’24 – Feb ’25 = Bearish.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – We could see a brief bull run for both gas and power for the next 2 weeks, starting as early as tomorrow. The reasons are weather, fear of shrinking storage going into winter, and an increasing reliance on natgas.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). It couldn’t be easier. We’re always here to discuss the best options in an ever-changing market.