NYMEX NatGas prices flat at opening bell for prompt month, followed by green through Dec ’36.
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-21-24
Today’s highlights -
. NYMEX NatGas prices flat at opening bell for prompt month, followed by green through Dec ’36.
. Aug ’24 NatGas production averaging 101.6Bcf/D. Compare that to 102.7Bcf/D for Aug ’23.
. Crude is down hard. Any elevated unrest in the ME could push prices back up.
. NatGas domestic production continues to set records in both volume and efficiency in production.
. China is approving fewer new coal plants after their 2023 surge set off alarms amongst the climate police.
. Ford Motors scraps plan for large SUV EV, as well as pushing back production on EV pickup to 2027.
. Today’s “Bottom Line” is your wakeup call.
#NYMEX TODAY - Open = $2.20, High = $2.22, Low = $2.16, Current = $2.19. Approximately -$0.03 from 1 week ago. Approximately -$0.30 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.61, 2025 = $3.29, 2026 = $3.60.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11.
2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73.
2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64.
2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.35), but above the 20-day ($2.09) and the 9-day ($2.18) average.
#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.26/$2.32.
#PIVOT @ $2.21.
#SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.15/$2.11.
#BASIS – #PG&ECGBasis and #SoCalCGBasis are both down this morning. Yesterday saw the biggest 1 day drop in some time.
#NYNMEX + BASIS INDEX PRICING
The 2024 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg = $3.34 through Aug ’24. 2023 avg = $9.83.
The 2024 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg = $3.05 through Aug ’24. 2023 avg = $10.95.
The 2024 SoCal Bdr First of the Month Index avg = $2.51 through Aug ’24. 2023 avg = $8.14.
#LNG EXPORTS = averaging 12.8Bcf for Aug ’24. Up 0.6Bcf from Aug ’23.
#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf.
#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
#SUPPLY - Today’s = 106.9Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 108.0Bcf.
#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 100.1Bcf.
#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 102.4Bcf. Latest 7 Day Avg. = 103.2Bcf.
#RIGCOUNT – Last week’s rig count (8-16-24) = Oil - 2 to 483 rigs, NatGas = + 1to 98 rigs, miscellaneous – 1 to rigs. Total @ 586. Last year this time @ 642.
#STORAGE – We are currently 209Bcf higher than this time last year and 375Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,889Bcf. At 3,264Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
#CRUDE – Down. Current Cash price = $73.43. Forward Estimates: 2024 = $72.89, 2025 = $69.80, 2026 = $67.05.
#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $21 - $32.
#CALIFORNIAPOWERGENERATION = NatGas @ 40.4%, RE @ 20.7% (Solar -1.1%, Wind 72.6%), Hydro @ 13.2%, Imports @ 16.9%, Nuclear @ 8.8%.
#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – All clear. No storms to report on.
#WEATHER – Hot and high pressure remain in the SW and Texas. Hot streak runs from the Badlands to Miami. The east coast will enjoy below normal temperatures today and tomorrow. The rest of the US will be slightly above normal but nothing to freak out over. Next week most of this glorious republic will warm to above normal.
Today = Bearish. 5 – 10-day Forecast = Bullish. 10-15-day Forecast = Bullish.
Sep – Nov Forecast = Bullish. Oct – Dec Forecast = Bearish. Dec ’24 – Feb ’25 = Bearish.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – Remember a few years ago when we were saying daily production needs to be at or above 100Bcf to limit upside price movement, as well as meet increased LNG export demand? We were 100% accurate. Now, we’re going to move that daily production up to 105Bcf/D for 2025 to combat the same 2 issues. If we can’t increase the daily average by 4Bcf in the next year, expect prices to increase as much as 30%.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). It couldn’t be easier. We’re always here to discuss the best options in an ever-changing market.