NYMEX NatGas Prices Start This Week Up
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-12-24
Today’s highlights -
. NYMEX NatGas starts the week UP.
. Smaller than normal storage injections support bullish behavior.
. EIA drops 2024 NYMEX natgas avg for 2024 to $2.30, previously $2.49. 2025 avg falls to $3.27 from $3.29.
. Older power plants are being retired this year throughout the PJM Interconnection, spanning 13 states.
. AI driven data centers are adding massive power demand.
. Power prices will go up.
. Crude up on weaker US Dollar and US economic optimism.
. EIA expects global consumption of liquid fuels to rise by 1.1MM barrels/D in 2024 and 1.6MM barrels/D in 2025.
. CNOOC (Chinese state oil company) claims to have made a major natgas discovery in the South China Sea. Could be a game changer in that region.
. EU natgas prices surge as traders fear future supply disruptions, even with high storage levels.
#NYMEX Open = $2.17, High = $2.25, Low = $2.17, Current = $2.21. Up approximately $0.25 from 1 week ago. Down approximately $0.25 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.62, 2025 = $3.34, 2026 = $3.61.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.42), but above the 20-day ($2.08) and the 9-day ($2.06) average.
#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.20/$2.28.
#THE PIVOT @ $2.14.
#SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.10/$2.06.
#BASIS – #PG&ECGBasis falling. #SoCalCGBasis falling. Both have room to fall further.
#INDEXPRICING
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg = $9.83. 2024 avg = $3.34 through Aug ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg = $10.95. 2024 avg = $3.05 through Aug ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index avg = $8.14. 2024 avg = $2.51 through Aug ’24.
#LNG EXPORTS = 12.6Bcf
#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf
#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.0Bcf
#SUPPLY - Today’s = 110.2Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 109.4Bcf.
#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 103.2Bcf.
#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 105.8Bcf. Latest 7 Day Avg. = 107.1Bcf. National demand is Moderate the next 7-days.
#RIGCOUNT – Last week’s rig count (8-9-24) - Oil increases by 3 to 485 rigs, natgas falls by 1 to 97 rigs, miscellaneous remains at 6 rigs. The total active rig count is 588. Compare that to 654 active rigs this time last year.
#STORAGE – We are currently 248Bcf higher than this time last year and 424Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,846Bcf. At 3,270Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
#CRUDE –Up. Current Cash price = $77.70. Forward estimates: 2024 = $75.33, 2025 = $71.71, 2026 = $68.52.
#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $29 - $35.
The latest % for #CaliforniaPowerGeneration = NatGas @ 35.5%, RE @ 20.0% (Solar – 1.2%, Wind 70.1%), Hydro @ 12.0%, Imports (a lot of which is coal generated power) @ 23.8% (up from 2% last week), Nuclear @ 8.7%.
#Hurricane Season Update – Tropical Wave, Ernesto, is developing, expected to track through Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands before turning north and out to the Atlantic Ocean. I need to correct a past post on hurricane seasons usually peaking mid-Aug. Historically, the peak of hurricane activity occurs around mid-Sep, with most storms developing between mid-Aug and mid-Oct.
#WEATHER – Cooler temperatures for most of the U.S. except for Texas and the SW. Heat prevails in these 2 regions.
Today = Bearish. 5 – 10-day forecast = Bearish. 10-15-day forecast = Bearish. Aug – Oct forecast = Bearish. Oct – Dec forecast = Bearish. Winter Forecast (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25) = Bearish.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – There is little to no support for bulls right now on the financial side (NYMEX). Let the downward correction take place. Basis – too early in the day and week to get a gauge on the physical side of natgas. We SHOULD see Basis fall at many delivery points around the US with cooler temps pushing cooling demand days down. And don’t forget…Shoulder Season is around the corner. Save money this Shoulder Season so you have more to spend during the Holiday Season.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. So, going forward, rather than having a massive indicative daily pricing sheet (that changes by the minute), we will simply quote any requests you may have on an individual basis. We will still report on NYMEX and Western Region Basis movement.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). THE RFP will be sent to all our supply partners who are supplying energy in that region. You choose the time and date you would like to receive the quote – please give 48 hours from the time you submit to the time you want to receive the quote. It takes less than 5 minutes to submit a request for proposal.