NYMEX NG Prices Increase for Second Straight Day
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-13-24
Today’s highlights -
. NYMEX NatGas starts the day flat from yesterday. NYMEX NG prices are down approximately 14% from the start of 2024. Sep ’24 pricing is up 4.5% since the start of Aug ’24.
. Crude jumps over $80 due to growing tensions in the M.E.
#NYMEX Open = $2.17, High = $2.23, Low = $2.15, Current = $2.23. Up approximately $0.17 from 1 week ago. Down approximately $0.30 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.66, 2025 = $3.36, 2026 = $3.61.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.45), but above the 20-day ($2.10) and the 9-day ($2.05) average.
#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.24/$2.30.
#THE PIVOT @ $2.20.
#SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.14/$2.09.
#BASIS – #PG&ECGBasis falling. #SoCalCGBasis falling. Both have room to fall further.
#INDEXPRICING
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg = $9.83. 2024 avg = $3.34 through Aug ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg = $10.95. 2024 avg = $3.05 through Aug ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index avg = $8.14. 2024 avg = $2.51 through Aug ’24.
#LNG EXPORTS = 12.6Bcf
#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf
#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.0Bcf
#SUPPLY - Today’s = 108.6Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 108.0Bcf.
#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 101.6Bcf.
#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 100.1Bcf. Latest 7 Day Avg. = 102.34Bcf. National demand is Moderate the next 3 days then turning to High.
#RIGCOUNT – Last week’s rig count (8-9-24) - Oil increases by 3 to 485 rigs, natgas falls by 1 to 97 rigs, miscellaneous remains at 6 rigs. The total active rig count is 588. Compare that to 654 active rigs this time last year.
#STORAGE – We are currently 248Bcf higher than this time last year and 424Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,846Bcf. At 3,270Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
#CRUDE – Bullish. Current Cash price = $79.85. Forward estimates: 2024 = $78.10, 2025 = $73.54, 2026 = $69.89.
#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $14 - $37.
#CALIFORNIAPOWERGENERATION = NatGas @ 25.7%, RE @ 22.4% (Solar – 0.1%, Wind 71.7%), Hydro @ 13.8%, Imports (a lot of which is coal generated power) @ 29.2%, Nuclear @ 9.0%.
#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – Tropical Wave, Ernesto, is moving towards Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands before turning north and out to the Atlantic Ocean.
#WEATHER – Northeast will be cooler than normal with mild storms. Warmer to hot temperatures for the southern half of the US.
Today = Bearish. 5 – 10-day forecast = Bearish. 10-15-day forecast = Bearish. Aug – Oct forecast = Bearish. Oct – Dec forecast = Bearish. Winter Forecast (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25) = Bearish.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – We should see prices fall as we near Shoulder Season. Weather patterns are mild for the most part without any heatwaves forecasted.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. So, going forward, rather than having a massive indicative daily pricing sheet (that changes by the minute), we will simply quote any requests you may have on an individual basis. We will still report on NYMEX and Western Region Basis movement.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). THE RFP will be sent to all our supply partners who are supplying energy in that region. You choose the time and date you would like to receive the quote – please give 48 hours from the time you submit to the time you want to receive the quote. It takes less than 5 minutes to submit a request for proposal.