NYMEX Rallies Again!

THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-17-24

#NYMEXUp     #PG&EBasisDownHard     #SoCalBasisDownFurther    #WeatherWeakening    #CarbonOffsets    

NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.48, High = $2.61, Low = $2.48, Current = $2.58.  NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.45 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.05 from 1 year ago. 

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.87, 2025 = $3.51, 2026 = $3.95.

2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98.  2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73.  2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64.  2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. 

We are above the 50-day ($1.88), the 20-day ($2.09) and the 9-day ($2.34) average.  

RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.58/$2.67. 

THE PIVOT @ $2.48. 

SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.39/$2.30. 

BASIS – Both PG&E CG Basis SoCal Basis daily spot and day ahead prices falling hard.          

The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.51 through May ’24. 

The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95.  2024 averaging $3.29 through May ’24. 

The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14.  2024 averaging $2.65 through May ’24. 

LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.6Bcf.  Mexico Exports = 6.8Bcf.  Canadian Imports = 5.3Bcf.

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Today’s Est. Supply = 104.5Bcf.  Supply 7 Day Avg. = 103.2Bcf.  Today’s Est. Production = 99.1Bcf. 

Today’s Est. Demand = 94.5Bcf.  Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 95.9Bcf.  Low demand for the rest of the week.          

RIG COUNT – The next rig count comes out later today. Last week’s rig count (5-10-24) has the following - oil rig count is down 3 rigs for a total of 496 active rigs. The natural gas rig count is up 1 for a total of 103 active rigs.  The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs.  Overall rig count = 603.  We are down 128 active rigs compared to this time last year.

STORAGE – We are currently 421Bcf above this time last year and 620Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,013Bcf.  At 2,633Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range.  Storage is projected to be 3.90Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.70Tcf for March ’25.  Early projection for next week’s storage report is an injection of 83Bcf.    

WEATHER – Wishing Houston, TX a safe and speedy recovery from the latest storms that knocked out power to over 1MM residents in the greater Houston area.  That storm is moving east, causing more damage across the Gulf states, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. 

5 – 10-day forecast = bullish.  10-15-day forecast = bearish.  3-month forecast = bullish.  Summer (July – Sep) forecast = bullish.  

CRUDE – Up.  Current price = $79.25.  Forward estimates: 2024 = $77.70, 2025 = $73.47, 2026 = $69.81.   

CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing falls to just over $27 per MWH. 

CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit.  You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery. 

THE BOTTOM LINE – NYMEX takes another jump up.  CA Basis is weakening.  Good prices are still available but the best prices for the summer may be gone.    

                         Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24                              

PG&E CG     SOCAL CG     SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH            $3.08          $3.00             $2.56

3 MONTHS          $3.68          $4.33             $4.10

6 MONTHS         $4.04           $4.67             $4.18

12 MONTHS        $4.89          $5.45             $4.85
24 MONTHS       $5.21          $5.92             $5.38

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.78           $4.45            $4.10

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$5.70           $6.25          $5.88