NYMEX Remains Bearish Despite Extreme Heat

🌟 One Minute Energy Update for 7-30-24 🌟

Today’s Highlights:

📉 NYMEX remains bearish despite the extreme weather forecast for the entire week. 📈 Basis is bullish but not as high as the last 2 weeks. Will this week’s weather push Basis prices back up? 🔮 Experts predict NYMEX will rise above $3.00 for the Autumn and Winter terms. 🚢 LNG exports increased to 11.5 Bcf/d, with 21 vessels departing U.S. ports between July 18 and July 24, carrying a combined capacity of 79Bcf.

#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalBasisDown #WeatherBullish #CarbonOffsets

💵 Open: $2.06 | High: $2.07 | Low: $1.99 | Current: $2.01 ⬇️ Down $0.20 from 1 week ago.

📅 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:

2024: $2.39

2025: $3.21

2026: $3.59

📊 Monthly Averages:

2024 (through July): $2.19

2023: $2.73

2022: $6.64

2021: $3.84

📉 Below the 50-day ($2.52), 20-day ($2.21), and 9-day ($2.06) averages. 🔼 Resistance: Starting @ $2.07/$2.12 🔄 Pivot: @ $2.02 🔽 Support: Starting @ $1.98/$1.94

📈 Basis Prices:

PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis remain elevated.

Waiting to see if the anticipated downturn will occur this week.

📉 First of the Month Index Averages:

2023 PG&E CG: $9.83

2024 PG&E CG: $3.24 (through July)

2023 SoCal CG: $10.95

2024 SoCal CG: $3.03 (through July)

2023 SoCal Border: $8.14

2024 SoCal Border: $2.45 (through July)

🌍 Exports & Imports:

LNG Exports: 11.4Bcf

Mexico Exports: 6.9Bcf

Canadian Imports: 6.0Bcf

⚡ Supply & Demand:

Today’s Est. Supply: 109.5Bcf

Supply 7 Day Avg.: 109.15Bcf

Today’s Est. Production: 103.2Bcf

Today’s Est. Demand: 101.5Bcf

Demand 7 Day Avg.: 102.78Bcf

🔧 Rig Count (as of 7-26-24):

Oil: +5 (Total: 482)

NatGas: -2 (Total: 101)

Miscellaneous: 6

Total Active Rigs: 589 (664 last year)

Next report: 8-2-24

📦 Storage:

249Bcf higher than last year

456Bcf above 5-year average (2,775Bcf)

Current: 3,231Bcf

Oct '24 Projections: 3.87Tcf - 4.03Tcf

March '25 Estimate: 1.63Tcf - 1.95Tcf

🌡️ Weather Forecast:

1 to 6 days: Hot high pressure, highs of upper 80s to 100s.

Cooler exceptions: NW & Great Lakes (70s-80s, warming to upper 80s-90s later)

Hurricane Season: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes.

📉 Crude Oil:

Current Cash price: $75.59

Forward Estimates:

2024: $75.32

2025: $72.05

2026: $68.77

⚡ CA Retail Power:

Grid Status: Normal

CAISO Pricing: $36 - $215

Power Generation: NatGas 35.0%, RE 25.0% (74% Wind), Hydro 11.4%, Imports 18.9%, Nuclear 9.6%, Batteries 0.1%

🌍 Carbon Offsets:

Mandates start as early as 2025. Is your company ready? We can help!

📌 Bottom Line: Record heat, record demand, and prices around 4-year lows. Will prices tank once summer heat leaves? Odds are even. We’re locking up NYMEX and certain Basis months out as far as 2027.

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#EnergyUpdate #NaturalGas #LNG #WeatherImpact #EnergyMarket #CarbonOffsets