NYMEX Trying to Find Direction...

🌟 The One Minute Energy Update for 7-23-24 🌟

🔍 Today’s Highlights:

📉 Slumping LNG daily exports due to Freeport LNG ramping up and cooler weather patterns bring bearish movement.

📈 Potential production slowdown to 100Bcf/D brings bullish movement.

🔥 Anticipated heatwave early next week also driving bullish movement.

💡 Experts predict prices to rally to $2.45. Current movement is opposite.

🏢 RFP ES News:

New Mid-Atlantic office opened.

Expanded service/supply map coverage.

📊 Market Data:

NYMEX: Open = $2.24, High = $2.26, Low = $2.18, Current = $2.21. Prices are flat compared to last week.

Calendar Year Estimates: 2024 = $2.64, 2025 = $3.40, 2026 = $3.72.

Monthly Averages: 2024 = $2.19, 2023 = $2.73, 2022 = $6.64, 2021 = $3.84.

📈 Technical Levels:

Below 50-day ($2.55) and 20-day ($2.37), above 9-day ($2.19) averages.

Resistance: $2.31/$2.38.

Pivot: $2.20.

Support: $2.13/$2.02.

🌐 Basis Prices:

Elevated PG&E CG and SoCal CG Basis prices.

2024 PG&E CG avg = $3.24 (through June). 2023 avg = $9.83.

2024 SoCal CG avg = $3.03 (through June). 2023 avg = $10.95.

🚢 Exports and Imports:

LNG Exports = 11.1Bcf.

Mexico Exports = 6.9Bcf.

Canadian Imports = 6.5Bcf.

📉 Production/Supply & Demand:

Balance of 2024 avg = 104Bcf/D. 2025 forecast = 105Bcf/D.

Today’s Est. Supply = 107.5Bcf. Production = 100.2Bcf.

Today’s Est. Demand = 99.5Bcf. National demand to rise over the weekend.

🛢️ Rig Count:

Oil rigs down by 1 (total 477). NatGas rigs up by 3 (total 103). Total active rigs = 586 (down from 669 last year).

🏪 Storage:

Latest injection = 10Bcf (below 28Bcf guesstimate).

Currently 250Bcf higher than last year and 465Bcf above 5-year avg of 2,744Bcf.

Oct '24 forecast: 3.79Tcf – 4.06Tcf. March '25 est.: 1.55Tcf – 2.00Tcf.

🌡️ Weather:

1 to 6-day forecast: Highs of 90s-100s in the west and southeast. Cooler in central US, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley.

Hurricane Season: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes predicted.

⚖️ Crude:

Current price: $80.13.

Forward estimates: 2024 = $77.59, 2025 = $72.94, 2026 = $69.40.

🔌 CA Retail Power:

Grid status: Normal.

CAISO pricing: $40 - $44 per MWH.

🌍 Carbon Offsets:

Mandates starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready? We can help.

🔚 The Bottom Line:

NYMEX prices expected to avg $2.90 for 2024. Current offer: $2.60.

End of injection season storage levels: 6% surplus expected.

🌎 RFP ES Service Expansion:

Now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, parts of TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA.

For quotes, visit RFPES.com and submit an RFP. Takes less than 5 minutes!

#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearishForThisWeek #CarbonOffsets