NYMEX up today, hovering around a 3-week high.
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-14-24
Today’s highlights -
. NYMEX up today, hovering around a 3-week high.
. NGI’s SoCal CG forecasts = Winter 2024/2025 =$7, May ’25 =$3, Winter 2025/2026 = $8.50, May ’26 = $3.50, Winter 2026/2027 =$8.50.
. PG&E CG should expect similar price ranges.
. WAHA forecasts = -$1.00 next month, Winter 2024/2025 = $3.50, May ’25 = $1.00, Winter 2025/2026 = $4.00, same for Winter 2026/2027.
. Increased LNG exporting should take place as early as Winter 2024/2025.
#NYMEX Open = $2.16, High = $2.21, Low = $2.14, Current = $2.21. Up approximately $0.05 from 1 week ago. Approximately -$0.40 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.60, 2025 = $3.30, 2026 = $3.57.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (through Aug ‘24) = $2.11. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are below the 50-day ($2.41), but above the 20-day ($2.08) and the 9-day ($2.07) average.
#RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.21/$2.27.
#THE PIVOT @ $2.17.
#SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.10/$2.06.
#BASIS – #PG&ECGBasis down slightly. #SoCalCGBasis down slightly. Both have room to fall further. Pay attention to our Basis updates to capture the big dips.
#INDEXPRICING
The 2024 avg = $3.34 through Aug ’24. 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index avg = $9.83.
The 2024 avg = $3.05 through Aug ’24. 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index avg = $10.95.
The 2024 avg = $2.51 through Aug ’24. 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index avg = $8.14.
#LNG EXPORTS = 12.8Bcf
#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf
#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.9Bcf
#SUPPLY - Today’s = 108.1Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 108.0Bcf.
#PRODUCTION - Today’s Est. = 101.2Bcf.
#DEMAND - Today’s Est.= 101.5Bcf. Latest 7 Day Avg. = 101.5Bcf. National demand is Moderate the next 2 days then turning to High.
#RIGCOUNT – Last week’s rig count (8-9-24) - Oil increases by 3 to 485 rigs, natgas falls by 1 to 97 rigs, miscellaneous remains at 6 rigs. The total active rig count is 588. Compare that to 654 active rigs this time last year.
#STORAGE – We are currently 248Bcf higher than this time last year and 424Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,846Bcf. At 3,270Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. The latest Storage projections for Oct ’24 range between 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf. The March ’25 estimate is 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf.
#CRUDE – Bullish. Current Cash price = $78.58. Forward estimates: 2024 = $76.51, 2025 = $72.46, 2026 = $69.01.
#CAISO and #CALIFORNIARETAILPOWER – Grid Status = Normal. CAISO current pricing = $21 - $34.
#CALIFORNIAPOWERGENERATION = NatGas @ 29.9%, RE @ 24.9% (Solar – 0.3%, Wind 76.5%), Hydro @ 10.6%, Imports (a lot of which is coal generated power) @ 25.8%, Nuclear @ 8.6%.
#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – Ernesto is nearing hurricane status, battering Puerto Rico overnight. Despite forecasts of Ernesto forecasted staying well offshore, severe rip currents are expected up and down the entire east coast.
#WEATHER – Cooler than normal across the northern half of the US. Extreme heat for TX and the Gulf region.
Today = Bearish. 5 – 10-day forecast = Bearish. 10-15-day forecast = Bearish. Aug – Oct forecast = Bearish. Oct – Dec forecast = Bearish. Winter Forecast (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25) = Bearish.
#CARBONOFFSETS – California and other states will be mandating companies buy carbon offsets, starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready for that mandate? Better to get ahead of the 2025 demand – more options, greater price range. We can help.
THE BOTTOM LINE – Be patient. The weather will move prices up and down over the next few weeks. Then, we should see downward pressure as traders turn their focus to winter. Then we can take advantage of the expected fall. Longer term strips let’s lock them over the next few weeks.
RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, CA, NV, AR, NM, (parts of) TX, PJM region, Mid-Con region, Gulf States region, NC, and VA. So, going forward, rather than having a massive indicative daily pricing sheet (that changes by the minute), we will simply quote any requests you may have on an individual basis. We will still report on NYMEX and Western Region Basis movement.
ALSO – If you would like an indicative/executable quote, you can simply go to RFPES.com and submit a Request for Proposal (RFP). THE RFP will be sent to all our supply partners who are supplying energy in that region. You choose the time and date you would like to receive the quote – please give 48 hours from the time you submit to the time you want to receive the quote. It takes less than 5 minutes to submit a request for proposal.