Projected Production Cuts Push Prices Up

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/21/24

#ProductionCutsPushingPricesUp

***#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #Weather #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ***– NYMEX is up as much as 10% so far today.

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.71, High = $1.79, Low = $1.67, Current = $1.76. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.10 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.75 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.17, 2025 = $3.28, 2026 = $3.66.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly Final Settle average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 average = $3.84. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.37), the 20-day ($1.95), and above the 9-day ($1.66) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.73/$1.79. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.62.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.48/$1.51. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are down again today for day ahead pricing. Forward months are falling as well. We can begin picking off individual months. *

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports are averaging 13.8Bcf/D so far this week.*

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** ****Today’s Est. Supply = 110.7Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 110.91Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 104.7Bcf. ****Demand ****- Today’s Est. Demand = 113.8Bcf. Demand 7-Day Avg. = 125.97Bcf/D. Demand expected to be lower than normal. *

***RIG COUNT – As of 2-16-24 – Overall rig ****count = 621. Oil sits at 497 active rigs. Natural gas sits at 121 active rigs. We are down 2 from 1 week ago and down 139 rigs from 1 year ago. *

WEATHER* – NG Weather has this to say for 2-21-24 – 2-27-24, “A warm break will set up over much of the US the next few days w/highs of 40s-50s across the northern US, and 50s-80s over the central and southern US. Weather systems will impact the West w/rain, snow, and mild to cool highs of 30s to 50s. A chilly weather system will track across the Midwest and Northeast this weekend w/lows of 10s to 20s for a minor bump in national demand but not strong w/the rest of the US mild-nice. Overall, Low demand Tue-Fri, moderate Sat, then back to light after.”*

6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.

STORAGE* – The latest estimate for tomorrow’s storage report is a 65Bcf withdrawal. Last year at this time we saw a 75Bcf withdrawal. The 5-year average for this time of year is 168Bcf. *

*CRUDE – Down so far, this short week. C**urrent price = $77.19. Forward estimates are down; 2024 = $75.44, 2025 = $70.58, 2026 = $67.19. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO stays just above $45MWH. *

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****The current run up in pricing today is being blamed on Chesapeake Energy cuts production forecasts. Have we seen the bottom of the market? Tomorrow’s storage report, next week’s production averages, and weather charts should help pick the direction. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.40 $3.27 $2.95

3 MONTHS $3.33 $3.52 $4.09

6 MONTHS $3.55 $4.27 $3.86

12 MONTHS $4.60 $5.46 $5.13

24 MONTHS $4.98 $5.78 $5.44

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.85 $4.64 $4.19