"Run, NYMEX, Run!!
THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-20-24
#NYMEXUpAgain #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherMixed #CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.48, High = $2.74, Low = $2.48, Current = $2.74. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.45 from 1 week ago and up approximately $0.50 from 1 year ago.
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.94, 2025 = $3.52, 2026 = $3.96.
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98. 2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84.
We are above the 50-day ($1.90), the 20-day ($2.14) and the 9-day ($2.40) average.
RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.69/$2.75.
THE PIVOT @ $2.58.
SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.52/$2.41.
BASIS – Both PG&E CG Basis SoCal Basis daily spot and day ahead prices are up today, most likely due to triple digit temps in the SW.
The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. 2024 averaging $3.51 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. 2024 averaging $3.29 through May ’24.
The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. 2024 averaging $2.65 through May ’24.
LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.7Bcf/D average for May ’24, up 0.8Bcf from April ’24 average. Mexico Exports = 6.8Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.4Bcf.
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Overall production is down 9% so far in 2024. Today’s Est. Supply = 104.1Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 102.8Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 99.0Bcf.
Today’s Est. Demand = 98.5Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 98.1Bcf. Moderate demand this week.
RIG COUNT – Last week’s rig count (5-17-24) has the following - oil rig count is up 1 rig for a total of 497 active rigs. The natural gas rig count is unchanged for a total of 103 active rigs. The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs. Overall rig count = 604. We are down 116 active rigs compared to this time last year.
STORAGE – We are currently 421Bcf above this time last year and 620Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,013Bcf. At 2,633Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. Storage is projected to be 3.90Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.70Tcf for March ’25. Early projection for next week’s storage report is an injection of 83Bcf.
WEATHER – NatGasWeather has the following forecast, “Texas will be hot Mon-Tue w/highs of 90s to 100s, then cooling into the 80s and 90s for the 2nd half of the week. The rest of the southern 1/3 of the US will be warm to hot w/highs of 80s and 90s, locally 100s Southwest. The northern 2/3 of the US will be comfortable w/highs of 60s-80s, besides briefly near 90 Ohio Valley Monday and cooler 50s over the N. Rockies, as weather systems bring showers and thunderstorms.”
5 – 10-day forecast = split. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (July – Sep) forecast = bullish.
CRUDE – Up. Current price = $80.06. Forward estimates: 2024 = $78.53, 2025 = $74.07, 2026 = $70.27.
CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery.
THE BOTTOM LINE – NYMEX is racing towards the $3.00 mark. It is summer. Demand is increasing and will increase further. The current price range and increasing demand may push producers to increase daily production. LNG is also up. The driving factors are bullish. Don’t expect any NYMEX fire sales to take place any time soon. For those who are locked, good job. For those who didn’t lock….we’ll see how it plays out.
Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $3.18 $3.10 $2.66
3 MONTHS $3.78 $4.43 $4.20
6 MONTHS $4.14 $4.77 $4.28
12 MONTHS $4.99 $5.55 $4.95
24 MONTHS $5.31 $6.02 $5.48
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.88 $4.55 $4.20
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.80 $6.35 $5.98