Some forecasts predict sub $2.00 prompt month NYMEX.
🔋 The One Minute Energy Update for 7-26-24 🔋
Today’s Highlights:
📉 Some forecasts predict sub $2.00 prompt month NYMEX. 📊 NYMEX prices are just above the 4-year low. 🏭 Higher output from natgas-fired power plants is compensating for the slump in wind energy production. Proof that even those who dislike natgas rely on it daily! 📈 NatGas demand for power generation in July set records.
Market Snapshot:
NYMEX: Open = $2.05, High = $2.08, Low = $2.01, Current = $2.02 (Down $0.07 from 1 week ago)
2024 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimate: $2.42
2025 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimate: $3.23
2026 NYMEX Calendar Year Estimate: $3.62
2024 NYMEX Monthly Average: $2.19
2023 NYMEX Monthly Average: $2.73
2022 NYMEX Monthly Average: $6.64
2021 NYMEX Monthly Average: $3.84
Technical Analysis:
Below Averages: 50-day ($2.54), 20-day ($2.25), and 9-day ($2.12)
Resistance: Starting @ $2.11/$2.19
Pivot: @ $2.07
Support: Starting @ $1.99/$1.95
Basis Prices:
PG&E CG and SoCal CG Basis prices remain elevated.
Possible brief retreat earlier part of next week.
Indices:
2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index: Averaged $9.83; 2024 averaging $3.24 through July ’24
2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index: Averaged $10.95; 2024 averaging $3.03 through July ’24
2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index: Averaged $8.14; 2024 averaging $2.45 through July ’24
Exports & Imports:
LNG Exports: 11.5Bcf
Mexico Exports: 6.9Bcf
Canadian Imports: 6.0Bcf
Production/Supply & Demand:
Balance of 2024 Production NatGas: Expected to average 104Bcf/D
2025 Forecast: Average of 105Bcf/D
Today's Est. Supply: 108.0Bcf
Supply 7-Day Avg.: 107.3Bcf
Today's Est. Production: 101.9Bcf
Today's Est. Demand: 104.0Bcf
Latest Demand 7-Day Avg.: 101.49Bcf
National Demand: Moderate next 4 days before increasing to high
Rig Count (7-19-24 Report):
Oil Rigs: Falls by 1 (Total: 477)
NatGas Rigs: Increases by 3 (Total: 103)
Miscellaneous Rigs: Remain at 6
Total Active Rig Count: 586 (Last year: 669)
Next Report: 7-26-24
Storage:
Currently 249Bcf higher than this time last year
456Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,775Bcf
Current: 3,231Bcf (Above 5-year historical range)
Storage Projections: Oct ’24: 3.87Tcf – 4.03Tcf Mar ’25: 1.63Tcf – 1.95Tcf
Weather:
1 to 6 Days Forecast: High pressure in southwestern, central, and southeastern US with highs of 90s-100s. Eastern US will see weather systems with highs of upper 70s to mid-80s.
Hurricane Season Update: Colorado State University predicts 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.
Forecast Trends: Today: Bearish 5-10 Days: Bullish 10-15 Days: Bearish Aug – Oct: Turning Bearish Oct – Dec: Turning Bearish Winter (Dec ’24 – Feb ’25): Bearish
Crude Oil:
Current Cash Price: $77.95
Forward Estimates:2024: $76.64 2025: $72.46 2026: $69.15
CA Retail Power:
Grid Status: Normal
CAISO Pricing: $45 - $62 per MWH
NatGas Power Generation: 49.4%
Renewable Energy Contribution: 18.4%
Carbon Offsets:
California and other states will mandate companies to buy carbon offsets starting as early as 2025. Is your company ready?
Bottom Line:
NYMEX prices are trading below 2024 Q3 & Q4 projections.
Balance of 2024 NYMEX: $2.49
2025 Prices: Trading below projections
2026 Prices: Currently $3.62
If our goal is to pay at/below $5.00 MMBtu for delivered natgas (NYMEX + Basis), we are there for many months through 2026. Does your current trade desk offer this? We didn’t think so.
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#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearishBeforeBullish #CarbonOffsets