Storage Reports Comes in Below Expectations, NYMEX Rallies

THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-9-24

#NYMEXUp     #PG&EBasisUp     #SoCalBasisUp    #WeatherBullish    #CarbonOffsets    

NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.18, High = $2.31, Low = $2.15, Current = $2.28.  NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.30 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.30 from 1 year ago. 

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.71, 2025 = $3.45, 2026 = $3.88.

2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73.  2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64.  2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. 

We are above the 50-day ($1.82), the 20-day ($1.88) and the 9-day ($2.09) average.  

RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.25/$2.35. 

THE PIVOT @ $2.17. 

SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.08/$1.99. 

BASIS – PG&E CG Basis is back up after a good week of falling.  SoCal Basis is also up.  Both delivery points are looking at CCDs increasing. 

The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. Currently averaging $3.51 through May ’24. 

The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95.  Currently averaging $3.29 through May ’24. 

The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14.  Currently averaging $2.65 through May ’24. 

LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.2Bcf.  Mexico Exports = 6.5Bcf.  Canadian Imports = 5.1Bcf.

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Supply continues to average 10Bcf/D more than demand on most days.  Today’s Est. Supply = 103.4Bcf.  Supply 7 Day Avg. = 105.1Bcf.  Today’s Est. Production = 98.8Bcf.  The current drop in daily production will bring bulls later this year. 

Today’s Est. Demand = 94.9Bcf.  Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 94.9Bcf.  Light demand today, then turning to light/very light demand for the balance of the week and into next week.        

RIG COUNT – The latest rig count (5-3-24) has the following - oil rig count is down 7 rigs for a total of 499 active rigs. The natural gas rig count fell by 3 for a total of 103 active rigs.  Miscellaneous rig count increased by 2 rigs.  Overall rig count = 605.

STORAGE – Today’s storage report shows an injection of 79Bcf.  The estimate was 84Bcf.  We are now 444Bcf above this time last year and 640Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,923Bcf.  At 2,563Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. 

WEATHER – The heatwave running through the SW, Texas, and SE should come to an end by tomorrow, bringing in far more pleasant conditions for the weekend and into next week.  Lot of rain scheduled for most of the east and parts of the south.  More tornadoes are running through parts north Texas through to the Tennessee Valley.

5 – 10-day forecast = bullish.  10-15-day forecast = bullish.  3-month forecast = bullish.  Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish.      

CRUDE – Flat.  Current price = $78.97.  Forward estimates: 2024 = $77.49, 2025 = $73.15, 2026 = $69.32.   

CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing falls to just over $15 per MWH. 

CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit.  You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery. 

THE BOTTOM LINE – Take a breath.  Let the bulls have their run.  We should see better prices by late next week when demand is projected to fall below normal. 

                         Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24                              

PG&E CG     SOCAL CG     SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH            $2.92          $2.99             $2.50

3 MONTHS          $3.61          $4.35             $4.12

6 MONTHS         $3.96           $4.68             $4.20

12 MONTHS        $4.82          $5.42             $5.01
24 MONTHS       $5.15          $5.82             $5.41

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.71           $4.47            $4.15

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$5.62           $6.19            $5.85