The Greenback is the real focus in green energy

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/8/24

#SoCalGasTransportationRatesIncrease10% #TheRealGreenInGreenEnergy

***#NYMEXDownAgain! #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeatherTurningAfterSuperBowlSunday #DemandWillIncrease #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ****– NYMEX continues to fall. Not sure how much lower it will go but don’t sleep on the great opportunities in front of us right now. *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.97, High = $1.99, Low = $1.91, Current = $1.91. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.20 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.70 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.44, 2025 = $3.40, 2026 = $3.76. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.57), the 20-day ($2.45), and the 9-day ($2.09) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.00/$2.05. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.98.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.92/$1.88. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are both down further today after a 1-day stall. *

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – The Wall Street Journal is reporting that some large green energy funders, Rockefeller/Bloomberg among others, are behind our current administration’s decision to halt growing out LNG to the rest of the world. The article claims these green energy funders/large political donors, are starting to realize that their green investments won’t deliver the early projections on green energy profits if LNG is available. More confirmation on which “green” is priority #1.*

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – ****New record set yesterday with Production hitting 107.3Bcf on 2-6-24. ****Today’s Est. Supply = 112.0Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 109.8Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 105.4Bcf/D. *

*Demand 7 Day Avg. = 120.5Bcf. Today’s expected demand = 120.0Bcf. *

***RIG COUNT – ***The next rig count comes out 2-9-24 after 10AM, PST. The latest rig count falls by 2 for a total of 619 active rigs. Oil rigs went unchanged for a total of 499 rigs. Natural gas rigs fell by 2 for a total of 117 rigs. The overall rig count is 20% below this time last year.

WEATHER* – Storms moving east. Warmer than normal temperatures continue through this workweek before shifting colder. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – Today’s storage report estimate was a withdrawal of 76Bcf. The actual report comes in with a 75Bcf withdrawal. We are now 187Bcf higher than we were last year and 248Bcf above the 5-year average 2,584Bcf. At 3,476Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. EIA projects to end the Withdrawal season at 1.942Tcf. This is the highest storage level projected since 2020. The 5-year average is 1.653Tcf. However, EIA slashed their end of season projection 2 weeks ago from 2.155Tcf to 1.905Tcf.*

The chart below shows the West (listed as Pacific) in good shape. SoCalGas has done a good job injecting as much storage as the CPUC allows them to inject. This should put downward pressure on Basis prices. But let’s not rely on basic logic when dealing with local utility companies.

***CRUDE – ****Jumping up to over $75.******Estimates - 2024 = $73.08, 2025 = $69.36, 2026 = $66.30. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO stays below $49MWH. *

***UNRELIABLE

RENEWABLE ENERGY – ****The EU has finally realized that their dream of decarbonizing will rely heavily on nuclear power. When will the US be allowed to chuck the unreliable energy in favor of true renewable energy? Around the same time, they get rid of all the grifters

politicians. *

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****If you want to bet on something, bet on the Super Bowl. Don’t let these sub $2.00 prices pass you by while you’re waiting for the bottom of the market to hit. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.60 $4.00 $3.60

3 MONTHS $3.55 $3.98 $3.54

6 MONTHS $3.87 $4.69 $4.20

12 MONTHS $4.89 $5.89 $5.37

24 MONTHS $5.11 $5.97 $5.49

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.96 $4.84 $4.33