THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/2/24

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/2/24

***#NYMEXFlattening #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeatherBearish #DemandDown #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ***– NYMEX is relatively flat so far today. Most likely due to weekend buying and elevated trading for March ’24. However, the overall week ends with March ’24 down about 10%. We’re seeing the cheapest NYMNEX in nearly 1 year.

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $2.05, High = $2.08, Low = $2.02, Current = $2.08. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.50 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.40 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.53, 2025 = $3.43, 2026 = $3.73. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.63), the 20-day ($2.66), and the 9-day ($2.35) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.13/$2.21. *

THE PIVOT* @ $2.08*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.99/$1.94. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Basis prices are coming off more today, especially SoCal CG. Some months remain inflated but there are good opportunities for some months all the way out through 2027. If you could beat the past 3 years’ averages, would you, beat them? *

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG latest export avg. = 14.0Bcf. *

***RIG COUNT – ****The next rig count comes out later today. The current rig count is 19% below this time last year. *

WEATHER* – West Coast storms are moving into the SW and Rockies, and both North and South Plains by tomorrow. Warmer than normal temperatures should limit snowfall at lower elevations. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – We are now only 54Bcf above last year at this time and 130Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,529Bcf for this time of year. At 2,659Bcf, working gas remains within the 5-year historical range. *

***CRUDE – *Dropping like a rock! Currently sitting just above $72. Down as much as $5 from yesterday’s opening bell. Opened at $73.90.**

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****We’re heading towards spring so it’s going to be hard for either NYMEX or CA Basis to rally if all the driving factors continue their current path. However, don’t get cocky and hold out for $1.50 NYMEX or $1.00 Basis. Chances of that happening are close to 0%. Be smart and lock it up. We’re beating the past 3 years as well as beating the forward projected averages. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.75 $4.10 $3.79

3 MONTHS $3.65 $4.05 $3.65

6 MONTHS $4.00 $5.00 $4.55

12 MONTHS $5.01 $6.20 $5.70

24 MONTHS $5.20 $6.15 $5.72

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$4.05 $5.15 $4.70