THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/1/24

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/1/24

***#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisFalling #SoCalGasBasisFalling #WeatherBearish #DemandDown #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ****– NYMEX is falling further. Will we see $2.00 or below? We could… *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $2.13, High = $2.16, Low = $2.06, Current = $2.06. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.60 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.60 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.57, 2025 = $3.44, 2026 = $3.74. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.65), the 20-day ($2.70), and the 9-day ($2.39) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.16/$2.21. *

THE PIVOT* @ $2.09*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $2.03/$1.97. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Production = 102.0Bcf/D. Today’s Est. Supply = 109.9Bcf. Supply 7-Day Avg. = 110.09Bcf. *

Demand 7-day Avg. = 119.08Bcf. Today’s estimated demand = $120.4Bcf. Demand remains below average and is expected to remain below average for the next week.

BASIS* – Basis prices are coming off bit by bit but have room to fall further, in my opinion. So far, we are crushing the last 3 years of First of the Month Index Averages. *

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG latest export avg. = 13.5Bcf. *

***RIG COUNT – ****The next rig count comes out 2-2-24. The current rig count is 19% below this time last year. *

WEATHER* – Wet and soggy in the West. The rest of the US looks good. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – Today’s estimated report was a withdrawal of 199Bcf. The actual is a withdrawal of 197Bcf. We are now only 54Bcf above last year at this time and 130Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,529Bcf for this time of year. At 2,659Bcf, working gas remains within the 5-year historical range. *

***CRUDE – ****Production continues to increase.*****Up slightly today but still under $77.

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO sitting just above $45.*

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****NYMEX is getting close to a 3–year low. Basis in CA has room to fall. Buying opportunities are here. We have time on the clock but chasing the bottom of the market has crushed people in the past. Pick your price, grab your price, sit back and smile. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.83 $4.45 $4.00

3 MONTHS $3.75 $4.31 $3.95

6 MONTHS $4.15 $5.30 $4.80

12 MONTHS $5.12 $6.62 $6.12

24 MONTHS $5.30 $6.35 $5.92

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$4.20 $5.48 $5.02