Welcome To Injection Season!

THE One Minute Energy Update for 3-21-24

#MarchMadnessIsOn #GoDuquesneDukes!! #ProudAlum

#WelcomeToInjectionSeason!!

***#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisCouldFallhard #SoCalGasBasisCouldFallHard #WeatherGood #CarbonOffsetsHere!GetYourCarbonOffsets!! ***

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.69 (down $0.07 from previous day open), High = $1.71, Low = $1.65, Current = $1.67. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.02 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.55 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.48, 2025 = $3.48, 2026 = $3.79.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.01), the 20-day ($1.76) and the 9-day ($1.70) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $1.74/$1.79. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.71. *

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.66/$1.63. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices continue to weaken and could fall further once the Injection Season starts. Don’t sleep on it, though. Summer heat will show up and when it does, the bear walk could be over.*

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. We remain WELL BELOW the last 3-year averages. *

***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ***– LNG demand is down a little right now as terminals and pipelines sort out some issues.

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 106.3Bcf/D. March ’24 is averaging 100.1Bcf/D, down 4Bcf from Feb ’24 average of 104.1Bcf/D. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 106.27Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 100.5Bcf/D. Today’s expected demand = 114.9Bcf – highest demand in over a week. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 106.67Bcf/D. Demand remains moderate this week. *

***RIG COUNT ***– Next rig count comes out tomorrow. Currently, oil sits at 510 active rigs. Gas rigs sit at 116 active rigs.

STORAGE* – Today’s projection was a 1Bcf withdrawal. The actual is a 7Bcf injection. We are now 411Bcf above this time last year and 678Bcf above the 5-yeqr average of 1,654Bcf. At 2,332Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. Very bearish. *

WEATHER* – NatGasWeather.com has this to say for the next 6 days, “Weather systems will track across the northern US w/highs of 20s to 50s, along w/areas of rain and snow. The southern US will be mild to nice w/highs of upper 50s to 80s and areas of showers. Overall, moderate demand for the next 7-days.”. 5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *

***CRUDE – Changing direction. ****Current price = $80.56. Forward estimates: 2024 = $79.37, 2025 = $73.52, 2026 = $69.43. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO just over $30 per MWH. *

RENEWABLE ENERGY* – Hydro levels could lend a great hand this spring and summer to natural gas demand. That little extra from hydro could keep natural gas prices even more bearish. *

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***We’re going to see a lot of carbon offsets coming out of Africa as their government finally gets serious about implementing “clean cooking” mandates/projects. If you’re looking to buy carbon offsets, our menu of carbon offsets continues to grow as we add more and more supply partners. Most companies will be mandated to curb their carbon footprint. SOME carbon offsets may be the easiest, cheapest, and most effective way to do so.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****We could see further price collapse on both NYMEX and Basis. The driving factors just aren’t here yet to push prices up. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of April ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $2.88 $2.69 $2.41

3 MONTHS $2.89 $2.88 $2.54

6 MONTHS $3.39 $3.91 $3.55

12 MONTHS $4.53 $5.13 $4.86

24 MONTHS $4.93 $5.58 $5.16

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.28 $3.72 $3.34

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$6.38 $7.38 $7.00