What's Pushing NYMEX p Today??

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/27/24

#NYMEXInABearishPredicament

***#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeatherGood #CarbonOffsetsCheap!! ***

***NYMEX ****– NYMEX prices hit their lowest price range since NYMEX opened in 1990. Forward prices are down approximately 35% from 1 year ago. Warm winter weather, below normal demand and strong production continue to apply downward pressure on natural gas prices. *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.62, High = $1.69, Low = $1.51, Current = $1.67. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.15 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.70 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.36, 2025 = $3.41, 2026 = $3.75.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly Final Settle average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 average = $3.84. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.32), the 20-day ($1.78), and above the 9-day ($1.62) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.72/$1.79. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.66.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.52/$1.59. *

2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. We remain well below the last 3-year averages at a 40+ month low.

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are down again today for day ahead pricing. Forward months are also down. We can begin picking off individual months. *

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. We remain WELL BELOW the last 3-year averages. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports are averaging 13.6cf/D so far this week.*

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** Chesapeake Energy plans to cut 20% of production to slow this current downward spiral. Chesapeake said they will continue to drill but leave the gas in the ground until prices rise. So, the gas will be there. It’s not as bullish a move as the market responded (12% jump) to the news last week. D****emand remains low for this time of year. *

***RIG COUNT ****– As of 2-23-24 - Oil up 6 for a total of 503 active rigs. Natural gas fell by 1 for a total of 120 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs count is 3. We are down 127overall from 1 year ago. *

WEATHER* – NG Weather has this to say for 2-27-24 – 3-2-24, “Weather systems will impact the West w/rain, snow, and mild to cool highs of 30s to 50s. A frosty weather system will track across the central US and Northeast Wed-Fri w/rain, snow, and lows of -0s to 20s, highs of 20s to 40s for a modest bump in national demand, then warming back into the 40s to 60s after. The southern and eastern US will be mild to warm w/highs of 50s to 80s besides locally cooler 40s. Overall, Low demand to open the week, increasing to moderate mid-week, then back to light after*.” 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.

STORAGE* – As of 11 days ago, storage was 22% above the 5-year average for this time of year. Let’s not forget that Injection Season isn’t that far off. We are 451 above the 5-yer average of 2,019Bcf. At 2,470Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year average. The next storage report is 2-29-24.*

*CRUDE – C**urrent price = $78.33. Forward estimates: 2024 = $75.43, 2025 = $70.69, 2026 = $67.31. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO stays just above $33MWH. Lowest MWH prices in some time.*

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****NYMEX is at record lows more than we would think. We’re seeing the lowest prices since 1995 but adjust for inflation and the 1995 prices would be closer to $3.00 rather than the $1.60 prices we’re seeing on the prompt month.******Let’s lock up NYMEX and then we pick up Basis as it falls. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.35 $3.59 $3.10

3 MONTHS $3.29 $3.68 $3.32

6 MONTHS $3.56 $4.42 $4.01

12 MONTHS $4.60 $5.48 $5.15

24 MONTHS $4.98 $5.78 $5.44

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.60 $4.58 $4.13