Why use solar panels when you can go straight to the sun? Meet The ESA's Solaris project

THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-17-24

***#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearish #CarbonOffsetsSoldHere ***

***NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - ****Open = $1.68, High = $1.71, Low = $1.66, Current = $1.66. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.20 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.45 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.48, 2025 = $3.52, 2026 = $3.97.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

*We are below the 50-day ($1.75), the 20-day ($1.75) and the 9-day ($1.77) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $1.80/$1.88. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.77. *

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.70/$1.67. *

BASIS* – PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG basis are up a few pennies today. *

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *

***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ***– 35 European Parliamentarians are signing a letter to POTUS calling for a reversal of the LNG export moratorium, saying it "gives succor to our adversaries and those who wish to divide us.” We can expect LNG production/exporting/development to return to earlier projections before the current administration chose to halt LNG growth as a favor to their big donors who are also losing millions in W&S investments.

*LNG exports hit 10.8Bcf/D yesterday. Exports to Mexico = 6.0Bcf/D. Imports from Canada = 5.3Bcf. *

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 104.5Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 104.1Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 98.9Bcf. *

Today’s Est. Demand = 93.5Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 92.02Bcf. Overall, light demand into Thursday, then High Fri-Mon.

***RIG COUNT ****– By the numbers – 2023 fell 20% from 2022. 2022 was up 33% from 2021. And 2021 was up 67% from 2020. The most recent oil rig count fell by 2 to 506 active rigs. The natural gas rig count fell by 1 to 109 active rigs. *

STORAGE* – The latest forecast for tomorrow’s storage report is an injection of 44Bcf. We are 435Bcf above this time last year and 633Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,650Bcf. At 2,283Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *

WEATHER* – NatGasWeather.com has this to say for the next 6 days, “Weather systems will impact many areas of the US the next few days w/showers, although temperatures will be quite nice over most of the US w/highs of 50s-80s besides locally hotter 90s Southwest and S. Texas and Cooler 40s N. Rockies. Colder weather systems will sweep across the northern, central, and eastern US Fri-Mon w/rain, snow, and chilly lows of 20s and 30s, highs of 40s-60s for stronger national demand.*

*5 – 10-day forecast = bullish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *

CRUDE –* Down. Current price = $85.35. Forward estimates: 2024 = $83.01, 2025 = $76.63, 2026 = $71.92. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO just over $33 per MWH. *

CARBON OFFSETS –* We’re going to see a lot of carbon offsets coming out of Africa as their government finally gets serious about implementing “clean cooking” mandates/projects. If you’re looking to buy carbon offsets, many of our Supply Partners offer carbon offset menus (type of carbon offset, price per unit, etc.) for review and purchase.*

RENEWABLE ENERGY* – The European Space Agency (ESA) is laying down the groundwork for Solaris. Solaris is the development of satellite technology that would harvest the sun’s energy in space, transmitting that energy, wirelessly, back to receiving stations on earth. The ESA is on a quest to help Europe reach carbon neutrality by 2050. So, the Solaris hustle has 25 years to make a mountain of cash only to be told after 25 years of research, that it won’t work, or is nowhere near cost effective to run. You want to see grifting at an infant stage, here it is.*

***THE BOTTOM LINE ****– The next few weeks could bring some hedging opportunities for the short term. If this summer fails to hit records or even current projections, we could see a lot of bears by Labor Day. *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of May ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $2.49 $2.39 $2.09

3 MONTHS $2.93 $3.24 $2.93

6 MONTHS $3.35 $4.06 $3.72

12 MONTHS $4.60 $5.25 $4.61

24 MONTHS $5.05 $5.75 $5.35

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.30 $4.01 $3.50

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$6.35 $7.07 $6.74