RFP Energy Solutions
Will Production Over Power Bullish Weather?

Will Production Over Power Bullish Weather?

Energy Market Report – April 25, 2024

NYMEX Natural Gas Overview:

  • Open Price: $1.64/MMBtu

  • High Price: $1.67/MMBtu

  • Low Price: $1.60/MMBtu

  • Current Price: $1.62/MMBtu

  • Weekly Change: Decrease of $0.10/MMBtu

  • Annual Change: Decrease of $0.55/MMBtu

NYMEX Pricing Future Estimates:

  • 2024 Estimate: $2.48/MMBtu

  • 2025 Estimate: $3.53/MMBtu

  • 2026 Estimate: $3.99/MMBtu

Technical Analysis:

  • Resistance Levels: Identified at $1.75 and $1.85/MMBtu

  • Pivot Point: Established at $1.75/MMBtu

  • Support Levels: Found at $1.65 and $1.64/MMBtu

Market Movements:

  • PG&E Citygate Basis: Noted a decline for the first time in over a week.

  • SoCal Citygate Basis: Observed a slight increase on the daily spot price, although it remains lower on a monthly basis.

Production and Demand:

  • Production Exceeding Demand: Surplus of up to 10Bcf on some days, signaling strong bearish pressures.

  • Estimated Daily Supply: 105.4Bcf

  • 7-Day Average Supply: 105.25Bcf

  • Estimated Daily Production: 100.85Bcf

  • Estimated Daily Demand: 99.0Bcf

  • 7-Day Average Demand: 97.3Bcf

Storage and Exports:

  • LNG Exports: 11.0Bcf

  • Mexico Exports: 6.1Bcf

  • Canadian Imports: 4.8Bcf

  • Storage Injection: Reported at 92Bcf, significantly higher than the projected 78Bcf.

Weather Impact and Forecasts:

  • Current U.S. Conditions: Temperatures range from 50s to 80s, except in the Great Lakes and New England areas.

  • Short-Term Weather Forecast: Bullish due to expected heating demand in the southwestern and Texas regions.

  • Long-Term Weather Forecast: Continues to be bullish through the summer.

Crude Oil and Power Pricing:

  • Crude Oil Current Price: $82.80 per barrel

  • CAISO Power Pricing: Fell to just over $17 per MWh.

Conclusion:

The energy market is currently witnessing significant movements in both pricing and supply dynamics. While natural gas prices have shown short-term stability due to a substantial injection, the overall trend suggests potential volatility. Production continues to outpace demand, maintaining bearish pressures, but upcoming weather conditions could influence future demand and pricing trajectories. Energy stakeholders should monitor these developments closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.